The Exchanges

Q If we think about that reducing cost, uh, over time and Moore's law proving out, we're also just seeing, you know, matter. We're seeing, uh, Amazon. We're seeing Google. I say they are going to invest ungodly amounts in the next three to five years. Does that go against Moore's law and the reducing costs for them? And how do you think about those two seemingly kind of paradoxical things?

A I think the large hyperscalers, uh, you know, are in a challenging position where there's a big difference between, you know, owning and operating one of the best frontier models and not. Um, so as a consequence, I think that, you know, I probably make very similar decisions to all of those firms because there's so much value in, you know, for consumer products, for, uh, infrastructure as a service providers, um, to have the, the, a differentiated frontier model available to their customers, um, that, you know, the betting on the future and then similarly betting on breakthroughs and AGI, I think is, Is really rational. Um, but the reason I was talking about the sort of Moore's law part of it is I think that sort of like in the infrastructure as a service market, it really consolidated around a very small handful of, of companies and much like AI, you know, building data centers like scale helps. So, you know, the more data centers you operate, the more you can afford the capex to expand your data center footprint. Um, it's just one of those things, which I think You know, it should be financed and built by the large hyperscalers because of the capex requirements to do so. And I think as the training market sort of consolidates and people start, you know, I think it will probably help because the revenue will sort of consolidate, you know, around those providers as well. Um, so…

AI assessment note: “these companies have an imperative because of the potential impact of AI to spend”

Q Are WhatsApp not best placed in terms of instilling an app store for every big brand in the world to implement their own channel, and then you have existing distribution to a billion, however many users it is, integrated already into functionality and apps that they use already?

A I think WhatsApp is very well situated, um, and it's in particular, if you look at the usage of WhatsApp in places like Brazil and India, um, you know, it is, uh, Uh, approximating this already, but I think, you know, large language models and agents like the ones we build at Sierra open the door to sort of much more full featured experiences. Um, but I also think the true same is true as most mobile platforms. You know, I think that, you know, when you install an app on this, uh, it's probably gonna be an app and an agent in the future. Like when we work with our customers, you know, we wanna enable them take their AI agent and whatever form factor becomes a dominant consumer experience. You should be Be able to install your agent in that, in that experience.

AI assessment note: “I think WhatsApp is very well situated... approximating this already”

Q I get you, but like our end of perplexity is like, no, we're not, we're not doing that. We're building a Google killer. That's what we want to replace. And then, you know, open AI has like an enterprise product with an enterprise division, uh, and then an, Like AGI and safety teams, and it's not as it's kind of cloudy. Do you see what I mean?

A I think these issues are complex, to be honest with you, Harry. I mean, I don't think it's, uh, you know, you could describe it, you know, as a enterprise team. You could also say if you're trying to take the value of these models and ensure that they benefit humanity, do you want every product that benefits humanity to be built exclusively by OpenAI? You know, and so enabling developers to build on top of it as a meaningful part of distributing the value to the world. So, uh, and then similarly, you know, I think the, so I don't want to, uh, minimize the, the, the complexity of all of these decisions, but I also think that, um, you know, if you, as you think about delivering the, the value of these models in a way that maximizes their benefit, Uh, it doesn't seem that far off, you know, and, and it's, uh, and I'm, and it's also, you know, what a lot of other research labs are doing for, I think, similar reasons with similar missions. And, uh, so I think it's, um, uh, I'm excited about the impact that it's having. You know, I, I ended up so many of the, uh, entrepreneurs I know who are working in AI do in large part because of how inspired they were by using these models as consumers, using the APIs. And I think it's having a super positive impact on the world right now.

AI assessment note: “enabling developers to build on top of it as a meaningful part of distributing”

Q What's the difference between rules versus goals and guardrails? Are guardrails not rules?

A When I think of, uh, rules, just imagine, um, you're a retail website. Uh, you probably have a menu at the top left and you click it and it has, you know, the ability to sort of filter down all the items that you sell men, women, shoes, socks, pants, that type of thing. You probably experienced this. You've essentially enumerated, you know, the rules by which people engage with your site. Here's the categories. Here's what you can click. You could probably have someone Actually click through all possible pages on your site and verify that they look correct. If you wanted to now imagine you put an AI agent on your site, it's a free form text box. People can type whatever that they want, whatever they want. And, um, if you explicitly enumerate all the things the agent can say, it's gonna feel like a robot, you know, it's gonna, because, and that's essentially what chat bots from like three or four years ago felt like. And actually, in fact, many of them have almost like the multiple choice Uh, options available to you because they were, they couldn't figure out how to express that universe. Um, nor did they have the natural language understanding to, to create a meaningful experience. So with an agent, you want to enable the AI to have agency and creativity to actually understand and really comprehend what the customer's problem is. But then once you go to say a, um, let's just s…

AI assessment note: “You've essentially enumerated, you know, the rules by which people engage with your site.”

Q Is there ever a stop to the cash tap that's been turned on? Someone said the other day, it's kind of like the Manhattan project for them, which is just like you you're in and you can't stop. And the sunk cost is there and you're like, fuck. Another twenty billion. Is there any turning off of that cash tap requirement?

A Uh, you know, one of the big questions is, you know, what scale of supercomputer and what methodology and what data is required to create something that might resemble AGI or create that breakthrough in economic value that would justify the investment? No one really knows that. You have a lot of theories, you know, about it. But I think when you look at these companies investing this kind of capex CapEx in that future. I think it's absolutely great. You know, I think it's, uh, totally understandable investors would look, you know, at these, the CapEx and say, give me the spreadsheet that justifies the returns. I think, um, well, that's completely rational and I'm sure there's folks doing that. I think the, the idea that we have this potential to create something that benefits humanity this much to have this kind of impact on the economy, to create something that valuable, I'm very grateful that there are some bold CEOs investing in that future. I think at every stage you end up with that sort of increasing resolution about how it will be monetized. Um, what the great products will be, you know, in the first wave, it was lots of co-pilots. Now you have, as I said, agents, my sense is there could be a ton of value created here. And I think, you know, you're in this position now where you, um, you don't want to be sort of penny wise pound foolish when you're sort of investing in t…

AI assessment note: “you don't want to be sort of penny wise pound foolish when you're sort of investing”

Q What's the difference between rules versus goals and guardrails? Are guardrails not rules?

A When I think of, uh, rules, just imagine, um, you're a retail website. Uh, you probably have a menu at the top left and you click it and it has, you know, the ability to sort of filter down all the items that you sell men, women, shoes, socks, pants, that type of thing. You probably experienced this. You've essentially enumerated, you know, the rules by which people engage with your site. Here's the categories. Here's what you can click. You could probably have someone Actually click through all possible pages on your site and verify that they look correct. If you wanted to now imagine you put an AI agent on your site, it's a free form text box. People can type whatever that they want, whatever they want. And, um, if you explicitly enumerate all the things the agent can say, it's gonna feel like a robot, you know, it's gonna, because, and that's essentially what chat bots from like three or four years ago felt like. And actually, in fact, many of them have almost like the multiple choice Uh, options available to you because they were, they couldn't figure out how to express that universe. Um, nor did they have the natural language understanding to, to create a meaningful experience. So with an agent, you want to enable the AI to have agency and creativity to actually understand and really comprehend what the customer's problem is. But then once you go to say a, um, let's just s…

AI assessment note: “The goal might be to process the cancellation”

Q Do you think knowledge is proprietary to companies, given the incestuous nature of just some of the movements we've seen between people and teams?

A Certainly some knowledge is. I also think that there's a, right now, a lot of these companies are pursuing a mission that's bigger than any one organization, and so, and then similarly, uh, you know, a lot of these, the folks working on AGI are in or come from academia, where the ethos is to publish, um, which is obviously, Uh, shifted, uh, you know, a bit over the past few years. So, uh, it's a very complex question. Um, but I think that right now, I think the breakthrough ideas, um, you know, uh, sort of like, I don't, I don't know the story actually, but, you know, the Wright brothers invented the plane. Apparently there was another group of, you know, I actually don't know who it was like came close as well. And they were the ones who hit it. I think there's also this dynamic where these ideas are sort of in the air, you know, between different researchers as well.

AI assessment note: “Certainly some knowledge is.”

Q Do you think knowledge is proprietary to companies, given the incestuous nature of just some of the movements we've seen between people and teams?

A Certainly some knowledge is. I also think that there's a, right now, a lot of these companies are pursuing a mission that's bigger than any one organization, and so, and then similarly, uh, you know, a lot of these, the folks working on AGI are in or come from academia, where the ethos is to publish, um, which is obviously, Uh, shifted, uh, you know, a bit over the past few years. So, uh, it's a very complex question. Um, but I think that right now, I think the breakthrough ideas, um, you know, uh, sort of like, I don't, I don't know the story actually, but, you know, the Wright brothers invented the plane. Apparently there was another group of, you know, I actually don't know who it was like came close as well. And they were the ones who hit it. I think there's also this dynamic where these ideas are sort of in the air, you know, between different researchers as well.

AI assessment note: “Certainly some knowledge is.”

Q Arvin Narayanan, who's at Princeton University. I now get to interview professors, very, very intelligent. Uh, uh, but, uh, my mother's like, really? Um, but he said, you know, the, the thing is, Harry, it's not that we will believe stuff that you see. That's not true. It's that you won't believe anything at all. Do you agree with him? And what are your biggest worries about this next wave?

A I really do believe for most of the problems at AI, there are AI solutions to those problems as well. Um, you know, I, you know, for a lot of content you're looking at, you know, it would be interesting to put it into things like chat GPT and ask it, is this real? You know, how should I determine if it's real? And you might get some good advice. As we think about, you know, information, veracity, authenticity, um, you know, my hope is that you end up with the sort of the white hat and the black hat, you know, and the white hat, um, you know, teams in this, just like in the world of cybersecurity will give us all the Ironman suits we need, um, to, you know, be successful and trust, um, or distrust, uh, the information that we see. So I think just like with all of these things, that's why I mentioned that, that outlook worm, you know, I think as these technologies get developed, you know, you end up with, you know, collectively are learning about the ramifications of these technologies, which is why I believe in responsible iterative deployment of AI, because I think it's very hard to in an ivory tower, predict all of the first and second order effects, but then it is an imperative for there's an industry that we develop Technologies and mediations and to, you know, for, um, uh, these different downsides of the technology, but I feel confident we can. I think, you know, all the g…

AI assessment note: “I really do believe for most of the problems at AI, there are AI solutions”

Q ask you, when you look at Google and Amazon, their cash count to fund this is cloud. Zuck and Meta do not have a cloud business being their cash cow to fund this. What does that enable or mean that Zuck can do differently with the cash cow not being cloud? Say that after 10 tequilas. Is there anything he can do differently? Is there any freedoms that he has?

A Yeah, I thought it was, you know, one of the things that, uh, I, Have changed my mind on over the past year is how quickly open source foundation models would be impactful. So I had a thesis when we started Sierra, uh, in, in March of last year, that eventually we'd end up with a few, a frontier model, uh, frontier models, essentially, uh, Built and financed by some of the hyperscalers, um, in partnership with the research labs, and that we would eventually have a meaningful open source model or two, the equivalent of Postgres and MySQL in the database market that would come out eventually be adopted by one of the, uh, larger tech companies that, that wasn't one of the hyperscalers just in the same way Google adopted Linux Or Facebook adopted my sequel and memcache, uh, you know, and contributed a lot of, uh, patches upstream to, to those projects. Um, and I would say Mark Zuckerberg sort of accelerated that by a meaningful amount, not only the timing of when that happened, but the quality, you know, Lama 3.1 is a really high quality model. Um, so I think it comes from what you said, you know, without a cloud business to finance it, his incentives are different than You know, the, the cloud providers. Uh, and I think he wrote, uh, no need for me to say it. I mean, if you just read his post on why he believes that this is the right strategy, I thought it was a really well articu…

AI assessment note: “without a cloud business to finance it, his incentives are different than you know”

Q Arvin Narayanan, who's at Princeton University. I now get to interview professors, very, very intelligent. Uh, uh, but, uh, my mother's like, really? Um, but he said, you know, the, the thing is, Harry, it's not that we will believe stuff that you see. That's not true. It's that you won't believe anything at all. Do you agree with him? And what are your biggest worries about this next wave?

A I really do believe for most of the problems at AI, there are AI solutions to those problems as well. Um, you know, I, you know, for a lot of content you're looking at, you know, it would be interesting to put it into things like chat GPT and ask it, is this real? You know, how should I determine if it's real? And you might get some good advice. As we think about, you know, information, veracity, authenticity, um, you know, my hope is that you end up with the sort of the white hat and the black hat, you know, and the white hat, um, you know, teams in this, just like in the world of cybersecurity will give us all the Ironman suits we need, um, to, you know, be successful and trust, um, or distrust, uh, the information that we see. So I think just like with all of these things, that's why I mentioned that, that outlook worm, you know, I think as these technologies get developed, you know, you end up with, you know, collectively are learning about the ramifications of these technologies, which is why I believe in responsible iterative deployment of AI, because I think it's very hard to in an ivory tower, predict all of the first and second order effects, but then it is an imperative for there's an industry that we develop Technologies and mediations and to, you know, for, um, uh, these different downsides of the technology, but I feel confident we can. I think, you know, all the g…

AI assessment note: “for most of the problems at AI, there are AI solutions to those problems”

Q Is there ever a stop to the cash tap that's been turned on? Someone said the other day, it's kind of like the Manhattan project for them, which is just like you you're in and you can't stop. And the sunk cost is there and you're like, fuck. Another twenty billion. Is there any turning off of that cash tap requirement?

A Uh, you know, one of the big questions is, you know, what scale of supercomputer and what methodology and what data is required to create something that might resemble AGI or create that breakthrough in economic value that would justify the investment? No one really knows that. You have a lot of theories, you know, about it. But I think when you look at these companies investing this kind of capex CapEx in that future. I think it's absolutely great. You know, I think it's, uh, totally understandable investors would look, you know, at these, the CapEx and say, give me the spreadsheet that justifies the returns. I think, um, well, that's completely rational and I'm sure there's folks doing that. I think the, the idea that we have this potential to create something that benefits humanity this much to have this kind of impact on the economy, to create something that valuable, I'm very grateful that there are some bold CEOs investing in that future. I think at every stage you end up with that sort of increasing resolution about how it will be monetized. Um, what the great products will be, you know, in the first wave, it was lots of co-pilots. Now you have, as I said, agents, my sense is there could be a ton of value created here. And I think, you know, you're in this position now where you, um, you don't want to be sort of penny wise pound foolish when you're sort of investing in t…

AI assessment note: “I'm very grateful that there are some bold CEOs investing in that future.”

Q I, I have to, again, take things in turn. In terms of, kind of, the pursuit of AGI, And then also building useful applications for consumers. A company has to have a priority. I think we both agree on that. How does one hold dual priorities of chasing AGI and building a great consumer or enterprise product at the same time?

A What is the purpose of building AGI? It should be to benefit humanity. And so what does it mean to benefit humanity? Um, I think that, you know, the OpenAI mission is to ensure that artificial general intelligence benefits all of humanity, and that can mean a lot of things. Uh, I think it means a lot different things to different people, which is why OpenAI has been sort of a, a honeypot for controversy, uh, you know, in a lot of ways, because it's very important in this space, and that mission, uh, can be reflected through the lens of your own values to mean a lot of different things. Um, but, One, it can mean access. So when you think about how do people access this amazing new technology, one could argue that chat GBT is perhaps been, um, the biggest breakthrough and providing universal access to AI. Um, you know, it's, uh, I'm not sure the idea of, you know, building this conversational agent that everyone could just use by visiting a URL. That was not a thing people conceived of probably before that. And it's why At least my understanding why it has a sort of a goofy name is it was a research preview that turned out to be the most important product of the past decade, you know, and, um, and I think that, you know, one of the things I think about is, wow, what an important mechanism to deliver the value of AI and AGI to the world. Um, and I think it's very aligned, you know…

AI assessment note: “Are there things you would do building consumer products that are different than AGI? Yes.”

Q I get you, but like our end of perplexity is like, no, we're not, we're not doing that. We're building a Google killer. That's what we want to replace. And then, you know, open AI has like an enterprise product with an enterprise division, uh, and then an, Like AGI and safety teams, and it's not as it's kind of cloudy. Do you see what I mean?

A I think these issues are complex, to be honest with you, Harry. I mean, I don't think it's, uh, you know, you could describe it, you know, as a enterprise team. You could also say if you're trying to take the value of these models and ensure that they benefit humanity, do you want every product that benefits humanity to be built exclusively by OpenAI? You know, and so enabling developers to build on top of it as a meaningful part of distributing the value to the world. So, uh, and then similarly, you know, I think the, so I don't want to, uh, minimize the, the, the complexity of all of these decisions, but I also think that, um, you know, if you, as you think about delivering the, the value of these models in a way that maximizes their benefit, Uh, it doesn't seem that far off, you know, and, and it's, uh, and I'm, and it's also, you know, what a lot of other research labs are doing for, I think, similar reasons with similar missions. And, uh, so I think it's, um, uh, I'm excited about the impact that it's having. You know, I, I ended up so many of the, uh, entrepreneurs I know who are working in AI do in large part because of how inspired they were by using these models as consumers, using the APIs. And I think it's having a super positive impact on the world right now.

AI assessment note: “I think these issues are complex, to be honest with you, Harry.”