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Jan 8, 2018 · 25m · 20vc

20VC: Why This Is Just The Start for Consumer Mobile, 3 Lessons China Taught About How To Invest Better In The US & How To Think About The Opportunity Cost of Capital Deployment with Hans Tung, Managing Partner @ GGV Capital

Hans Tung · 15m spoken Harry Stebbings · 8m spoken
0:00 / 0:00

gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions

In this episode of The 20 Minute VC, host Harry Stebbings interviews Hans Tung, Managing Partner at GGV Capital, to explore cross-border venture capital investing between the US and Asia. Tung shares actionable insights on consumer mobile globalization, strategic lessons from China's tech ecosystem, e-commerce innovation beyond Amazon, and venture valuation discipline.

How this conversation actually went

Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. Harry holds 33.4% of the talking time here. How this is scored →

Harry as informed peer 3.2 Guest teaching 4.6 Guest disagreement 1.4 Harry pushing back 3.6
05100:0010:0020:002:55–7:36 · Harry as informed peer 4/10 Hans Tung's Career Path and Entry into Venture Capital Harry challenges Hans' optimism on consumer tech by citing peer VCs like Jeremy Levine and Eric Fang who hold pessimistic views, and pointing to Uber's retreat from China. Hans counters by reframing Uber's exit as a lucrative strategic win and explaining global mobile trends.7:36–10:56 · Harry as informed peer 4/10 E-Commerce Opportunities and Market Scaling Beyond Amazon Harry questions whether Amazon has already won e-commerce and pushes back on population market proportions. Hans politely dismisses the premise and educates Harry on GMV figures, pointing out US e-commerce is over half a trillion and still severely underpenetrated compared to China.10:56–15:22 · Harry as informed peer 3/10 Market Creation and the Houzz Community-Commerce Model Harry brings up Jeremy Levine's price sensitivity stance to ask how Hans evaluates valuation premiums. Hans explains the concept of opportunity cost in capital allocation, citing Xiaomi's valuation surge from $20M to over $40B as justification.15:22–18:23 · Harry as informed peer 3/10 Global Millennial Trends and Direct-to-Consumer Brands Harry expresses skepticism regarding millennial brand loyalty in e-commerce. Hans explains how direct-to-consumer brands foster authentic trust and high interaction frequency across social channels.18:23–22:57 · Harry as informed peer 2/10 Quick Fire Round and Investment in Ibotta In a friendly quick-fire round, Hans shares his belief in unstoppable globalization despite political trends, his firm's focus on gender diversity, and the fast execution behind their Ibotta deal.2:55–7:36 · Guest teaching 5/10 Hans Tung's Career Path and Entry into Venture Capital Harry challenges Hans' optimism on consumer tech by citing peer VCs like Jeremy Levine and Eric Fang who hold pessimistic views, and pointing to Uber's retreat from China. Hans counters by reframing Uber's exit as a lucrative strategic win and explaining global mobile trends.7:36–10:56 · Guest teaching 6/10 E-Commerce Opportunities and Market Scaling Beyond Amazon Harry questions whether Amazon has already won e-commerce and pushes back on population market proportions. Hans politely dismisses the premise and educates Harry on GMV figures, pointing out US e-commerce is over half a trillion and still severely underpenetrated compared to China.10:56–15:22 · Guest teaching 5/10 Market Creation and the Houzz Community-Commerce Model Harry brings up Jeremy Levine's price sensitivity stance to ask how Hans evaluates valuation premiums. Hans explains the concept of opportunity cost in capital allocation, citing Xiaomi's valuation surge from $20M to over $40B as justification.15:22–18:23 · Guest teaching 4/10 Global Millennial Trends and Direct-to-Consumer Brands Harry expresses skepticism regarding millennial brand loyalty in e-commerce. Hans explains how direct-to-consumer brands foster authentic trust and high interaction frequency across social channels.18:23–22:57 · Guest teaching 3/10 Quick Fire Round and Investment in Ibotta In a friendly quick-fire round, Hans shares his belief in unstoppable globalization despite political trends, his firm's focus on gender diversity, and the fast execution behind their Ibotta deal.2:55–7:36 · Guest disagreement 2/10 Hans Tung's Career Path and Entry into Venture Capital Harry challenges Hans' optimism on consumer tech by citing peer VCs like Jeremy Levine and Eric Fang who hold pessimistic views, and pointing to Uber's retreat from China. Hans counters by reframing Uber's exit as a lucrative strategic win and explaining global mobile trends.7:36–10:56 · Guest disagreement 2/10 E-Commerce Opportunities and Market Scaling Beyond Amazon Harry questions whether Amazon has already won e-commerce and pushes back on population market proportions. Hans politely dismisses the premise and educates Harry on GMV figures, pointing out US e-commerce is over half a trillion and still severely underpenetrated compared to China.10:56–15:22 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Market Creation and the Houzz Community-Commerce Model Harry brings up Jeremy Levine's price sensitivity stance to ask how Hans evaluates valuation premiums. Hans explains the concept of opportunity cost in capital allocation, citing Xiaomi's valuation surge from $20M to over $40B as justification.15:22–18:23 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Global Millennial Trends and Direct-to-Consumer Brands Harry expresses skepticism regarding millennial brand loyalty in e-commerce. Hans explains how direct-to-consumer brands foster authentic trust and high interaction frequency across social channels.18:23–22:57 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Quick Fire Round and Investment in Ibotta In a friendly quick-fire round, Hans shares his belief in unstoppable globalization despite political trends, his firm's focus on gender diversity, and the fast execution behind their Ibotta deal.2:55–7:36 · Harry pushing back 5/10 Hans Tung's Career Path and Entry into Venture Capital Harry challenges Hans' optimism on consumer tech by citing peer VCs like Jeremy Levine and Eric Fang who hold pessimistic views, and pointing to Uber's retreat from China. Hans counters by reframing Uber's exit as a lucrative strategic win and explaining global mobile trends.7:36–10:56 · Harry pushing back 5/10 E-Commerce Opportunities and Market Scaling Beyond Amazon Harry questions whether Amazon has already won e-commerce and pushes back on population market proportions. Hans politely dismisses the premise and educates Harry on GMV figures, pointing out US e-commerce is over half a trillion and still severely underpenetrated compared to China.10:56–15:22 · Harry pushing back 3/10 Market Creation and the Houzz Community-Commerce Model Harry brings up Jeremy Levine's price sensitivity stance to ask how Hans evaluates valuation premiums. Hans explains the concept of opportunity cost in capital allocation, citing Xiaomi's valuation surge from $20M to over $40B as justification.15:22–18:23 · Harry pushing back 3/10 Global Millennial Trends and Direct-to-Consumer Brands Harry expresses skepticism regarding millennial brand loyalty in e-commerce. Hans explains how direct-to-consumer brands foster authentic trust and high interaction frequency across social channels.18:23–22:57 · Harry pushing back 2/10 Quick Fire Round and Investment in Ibotta In a friendly quick-fire round, Hans shares his belief in unstoppable globalization despite political trends, his firm's focus on gender diversity, and the fast execution behind their Ibotta deal.

speaking balance: gold is Harry, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)

0:00 · Harry 98.6% · guest 1.4%0:00 · Harry 98.6% · guest 1.4%3:00 · Harry 29.2% · guest 70.8%3:00 · Harry 29.2% · guest 70.8%6:00 · Harry 15.4% · guest 84.6%6:00 · Harry 15.4% · guest 84.6%9:00 · Harry 11.6% · guest 88.4%9:00 · Harry 11.6% · guest 88.4%12:00 · Harry 22.6% · guest 77.4%12:00 · Harry 22.6% · guest 77.4%15:00 · Harry 15.9% · guest 84.1%15:00 · Harry 15.9% · guest 84.1%18:00 · Harry 12.1% · guest 87.9%18:00 · Harry 12.1% · guest 87.9%21:00 · Harry 41.8% · guest 58.2%21:00 · Harry 41.8% · guest 58.2%24:00 · Harry 100% · guest 0%24:00 · Harry 100% · guest 0%
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 7:46 Hans dismisses 'Amazon has won' narrative

Hans chuckles at the host's premise that Amazon controls e-commerce, calling it a view that makes him smile before detailing how multi-player e-commerce thrives even under heavy market concentration.

 Hardest push from Harry ▶ 5:46 Harry presses on globalization thesis reality

Harry explicitly refuses to accept Hans' career bet on global consumer tech without asking for a self-assessment on high-profile failures like Uber retreating from China.

 Biggest teaching moment ▶ 8:45 Hans corrects Harry's e-commerce market math

When Harry assumes China's population disparity makes US e-commerce market share trivial, Hans corrects him with hard figures showing US e-commerce at over $500B vs China's $1T.

 Harry holds his own ▶ 4:22 Harry cites industry VCs to counter guest optimism

Harry demonstrates deep sector awareness by naming specific peer VCs and firms like Jeremy Levine and Kleiner Perkins' Eric Fang who hold opposing pessimistic views.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
ChapterTopicHarry as informed peerGuest teachingGuest disagreementHarry pushing backWhy
Hans Tung's Career Path and Entry into Venture Capital 4525 Harry challenges Hans' optimism on consumer tech by citing peer VCs like Jeremy Levine and Eric Fang who hold pessimistic views, and pointing to Uber's retreat from China. Hans counters by reframing Uber's exit as a lucrative strategic win and explaining global mobile trends.
E-Commerce Opportunities and Market Scaling Beyond Amazon 4625 Harry questions whether Amazon has already won e-commerce and pushes back on population market proportions. Hans politely dismisses the premise and educates Harry on GMV figures, pointing out US e-commerce is over half a trillion and still severely underpenetrated compared to China.
Market Creation and the Houzz Community-Commerce Model 3513 Harry brings up Jeremy Levine's price sensitivity stance to ask how Hans evaluates valuation premiums. Hans explains the concept of opportunity cost in capital allocation, citing Xiaomi's valuation surge from $20M to over $40B as justification.
Global Millennial Trends and Direct-to-Consumer Brands 3413 Harry expresses skepticism regarding millennial brand loyalty in e-commerce. Hans explains how direct-to-consumer brands foster authentic trust and high interaction frequency across social channels.
Quick Fire Round and Investment in Ibotta 2312 In a friendly quick-fire round, Hans shares his belief in unstoppable globalization despite political trends, his firm's focus on gender diversity, and the fast execution behind their Ibotta deal.

Statements from this episode (15)

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hans Tung: Globalization of consumer mobile internet is the decade's biggest trend
“Over the next 10 years, between 2013 and 20 23, globalization of mobile internet, especially for consumer companies, Will be the most important trend I will ever bet on in my career, and hence, because I have a more global view, I am still extremely bullish on…”
Hans Tung Jan 8, 2018 ▶ 5:30
Assertion Supported
Tung: Uber turned $1B–$2B investment in China into $7B Didi stake
“They put in about a billion to two in, and they have a stake that's worth seven billion.”
Hans Tung Jan 8, 2018 ▶ 7:16
Insight
Tung: Western tech companies must enter China via local strategic partners
“We think that a way to go to China is not necessarily to do it yourself, but find a strategic partner in the same way that Yahoo found Alibaba, and that's the right model. So it's not an issue of market. It's an issue of entry model in China.”
Hans Tung Jan 8, 2018 ▶ 7:26
Assertion Partly supported
Hans Tung: Alibaba and JD.com Control Over 90% of Chinese E-Commerce
“I, fortunately we have that perspective being in China where Alibaba with Taobao and Tmall owns 80% of market share in e-commerce and JD has another over 10% market share in e-commerce.”
Hans Tung Jan 8, 2018 ▶ 7:50
Assertion Supported
Hans Tung: US E-Commerce Penetration Lags China's 15% at Just 8-9%
“Amazon has about 40% market share in the US. And e-commerce penetration into offline retail as a percentage of offline retail in the US is only eight or nine percent. In China, the same ratio is about 15%.”
Hans Tung Jan 8, 2018 ▶ 8:13
Assertion Supported
Hans Tung: Chinese E-Commerce Hits $1T Annually vs. $500B+ in US
“China, the online e-commerce market is roughly about one trillion dollars a year across the benchmark this year. In the U.S., it's well over half a half a trillion.”
Hans Tung Jan 8, 2018 ▶ 8:56
Insight
Tung: Building products only for privileged peers limits startups to niche markets
“If you only build a service, a product for yourself or your friends, that's a relatively niche market.”
Hans Tung Jan 8, 2018 ▶ 9:40
Insight
Tung: Startups should prioritize high volume over high profit margins
“Don't worry about high margin. Worry about high volume.”
Hans Tung Jan 8, 2018 ▶ 10:18
Insight
Tung: Diverse teams enable tech startups to scale globally much easier
“You want to have a team with diversity of background, opinions, thoughts, and experiences, because that would help you scale globally much easier.”
Hans Tung Jan 8, 2018 ▶ 10:43
Opinion
Hans Tung: Houzz's community-commerce model gives it an advantage over Amazon
“That experience where you have a community, content, and commerce is what we think is extremely differentiated from Amazon. At the same time, it is something that keeps getting users to come back over and over again. I find myself on a house almost once a day,…”
Hans Tung Jan 8, 2018 ▶ 12:11
Insight
Hans Tung: Opportunity size and team quality outweigh valuation sensitivity
“I focus more on how big that opportunity can be down the road, and I focus on how well I think this team stack up against everyone else in that same space, and I don't mind to pay valuation that's a bit higher for the right team and for the right category. It …”
Hans Tung Jan 8, 2018 ▶ 12:58
Disclosure
Hans Tung: GGV Capital targets 0.5x to 1x reserve ratio
“We tend to have a reserve ratio somewhere around one to one or one to two. So for every dollar we put in, sometimes we have a dollar in reserve. Sometimes we have 50 cents on the reserve.”
Hans Tung Jan 8, 2018 ▶ 14:13
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Tung: Gen Z and millennial consumer behaviors are converging globally
“There's a lot of similarity between a Gen Z consumer and a millennial consumer in the U.S. With China. And we're seeing similar users coming up in India, Indonesia, Brazil, Eastern Europe, Western Europe as well.”
Hans Tung Jan 8, 2018 ▶ 16:12
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Hans Tung: 75% of GGV Capital's team are women
“In our firm, 75% are women, and amongst our six GPs, we have one that's women, and most of our VPs are women.”
Hans Tung Jan 8, 2018 ▶ 21:25
Disclosure
Hans Tung: GGV Capital closed Ibotta investment in three weeks
“So that's probably one of my most recent investment where we're able to make a decision from meeting an entrepreneur to wiring the money all within three weeks.”
Hans Tung Jan 8, 2018 ▶ 22:30
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