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Sep 12, 2016 · 26m · 20vc

20VC: Redpoint's Tom Tunguz on Winning with Data: How To Gain A Competitive Advantage & Dominate Markets with Data and 5 Steps To Create A Data Driven Company

Tomasz Tunguz · 16m spoken Harry Stebbings · 8m spoken
0:00 / 0:00

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In this episode of The 20 Minute VC, host Harry Stebbings interviews Redpoint Ventures partner Tom Tunguz about his book 'Winning With Data'. Tunguz outlines strategies for building data-driven corporate cultures, structuring recruitment analytics, overcoming cognitive biases, and balancing quantitative metrics with human intuition.

How this conversation actually went

Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. Harry holds 36.3% of the talking time here. How this is scored →

Harry as informed peer 2.9 Guest teaching 4.1 Guest disagreement 0.4 Harry pushing back 1.4
05100:0010:0020:002:06–4:23 · Harry as informed peer 2/10 Early Realizations of the Power of Data Harry opens the conversation by asking Tom about his initial realization of the power of data. Tom shares personal anecdotes from working at a law firm in Chile at age 17 and later on the Google AdSense team.4:23–6:26 · Harry as informed peer 2/10 The Motivation Behind 'Winning With Data' Harry playfully teases Tom about why it took so long to write the book given his prolific blogging. Tom explains the motivation behind the book, citing insights from SaaS angel investors and Redpoint's partnership with Looker.6:26–8:55 · Harry as informed peer 2/10 Three Foundations of Operationalizing Data Harry asks how top companies operationalize data. Tom details three core elements: a dedicated data team, a centralized data dictionary, and a robust data supply chain to eliminate the 'data breadline.'8:55–11:06 · Harry as informed peer 3/10 Building a Data-Driven Culture and Leadership Mindset Harry asks about fostering a transparent data culture and challenges the notion of 'stop listening to your boss.' Tom clarifies that leadership authority remains vital, but employees should back their arguments with data rather than pure opinion.11:06–13:10 · Harry as informed peer 4/10 Applying Data Science to Structured Recruitment Harry references research from Adam Grant on interview efficacy and mentions his connection to Greenhouse's founder. Tom outlines structured interviewing methodologies and key recruiting speed metrics.13:10–19:47 · Harry as informed peer 5/10 Balancing Quantitative Metrics with Human Emotion Harry challenges pure quantitative decision-making by asking how human emotion fits into hiring and leadership. Tom illustrates cognitive concepts using real-world psychology cases, including the Monty Hall problem and Kahneman's West Point experiment.19:47–24:16 · Harry as informed peer 2/10 Quickfire Round: Writing Process, Case Studies, and Investments In a rapid-fire sequence, Harry asks about writing tools, historical data lessons, exemplary data-driven companies like ThredUp, and Tom's investment in Dremio.2:06–4:23 · Guest teaching 3/10 Early Realizations of the Power of Data Harry opens the conversation by asking Tom about his initial realization of the power of data. Tom shares personal anecdotes from working at a law firm in Chile at age 17 and later on the Google AdSense team.4:23–6:26 · Guest teaching 3/10 The Motivation Behind 'Winning With Data' Harry playfully teases Tom about why it took so long to write the book given his prolific blogging. Tom explains the motivation behind the book, citing insights from SaaS angel investors and Redpoint's partnership with Looker.6:26–8:55 · Guest teaching 5/10 Three Foundations of Operationalizing Data Harry asks how top companies operationalize data. Tom details three core elements: a dedicated data team, a centralized data dictionary, and a robust data supply chain to eliminate the 'data breadline.'8:55–11:06 · Guest teaching 4/10 Building a Data-Driven Culture and Leadership Mindset Harry asks about fostering a transparent data culture and challenges the notion of 'stop listening to your boss.' Tom clarifies that leadership authority remains vital, but employees should back their arguments with data rather than pure opinion.11:06–13:10 · Guest teaching 4/10 Applying Data Science to Structured Recruitment Harry references research from Adam Grant on interview efficacy and mentions his connection to Greenhouse's founder. Tom outlines structured interviewing methodologies and key recruiting speed metrics.13:10–19:47 · Guest teaching 6/10 Balancing Quantitative Metrics with Human Emotion Harry challenges pure quantitative decision-making by asking how human emotion fits into hiring and leadership. Tom illustrates cognitive concepts using real-world psychology cases, including the Monty Hall problem and Kahneman's West Point experiment.19:47–24:16 · Guest teaching 4/10 Quickfire Round: Writing Process, Case Studies, and Investments In a rapid-fire sequence, Harry asks about writing tools, historical data lessons, exemplary data-driven companies like ThredUp, and Tom's investment in Dremio.2:06–4:23 · Guest disagreement 0/10 Early Realizations of the Power of Data Harry opens the conversation by asking Tom about his initial realization of the power of data. Tom shares personal anecdotes from working at a law firm in Chile at age 17 and later on the Google AdSense team.4:23–6:26 · Guest disagreement 1/10 The Motivation Behind 'Winning With Data' Harry playfully teases Tom about why it took so long to write the book given his prolific blogging. Tom explains the motivation behind the book, citing insights from SaaS angel investors and Redpoint's partnership with Looker.6:26–8:55 · Guest disagreement 0/10 Three Foundations of Operationalizing Data Harry asks how top companies operationalize data. Tom details three core elements: a dedicated data team, a centralized data dictionary, and a robust data supply chain to eliminate the 'data breadline.'8:55–11:06 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Building a Data-Driven Culture and Leadership Mindset Harry asks about fostering a transparent data culture and challenges the notion of 'stop listening to your boss.' Tom clarifies that leadership authority remains vital, but employees should back their arguments with data rather than pure opinion.11:06–13:10 · Guest disagreement 0/10 Applying Data Science to Structured Recruitment Harry references research from Adam Grant on interview efficacy and mentions his connection to Greenhouse's founder. Tom outlines structured interviewing methodologies and key recruiting speed metrics.13:10–19:47 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Balancing Quantitative Metrics with Human Emotion Harry challenges pure quantitative decision-making by asking how human emotion fits into hiring and leadership. Tom illustrates cognitive concepts using real-world psychology cases, including the Monty Hall problem and Kahneman's West Point experiment.19:47–24:16 · Guest disagreement 0/10 Quickfire Round: Writing Process, Case Studies, and Investments In a rapid-fire sequence, Harry asks about writing tools, historical data lessons, exemplary data-driven companies like ThredUp, and Tom's investment in Dremio.2:06–4:23 · Harry pushing back 0/10 Early Realizations of the Power of Data Harry opens the conversation by asking Tom about his initial realization of the power of data. Tom shares personal anecdotes from working at a law firm in Chile at age 17 and later on the Google AdSense team.4:23–6:26 · Harry pushing back 2/10 The Motivation Behind 'Winning With Data' Harry playfully teases Tom about why it took so long to write the book given his prolific blogging. Tom explains the motivation behind the book, citing insights from SaaS angel investors and Redpoint's partnership with Looker.6:26–8:55 · Harry pushing back 0/10 Three Foundations of Operationalizing Data Harry asks how top companies operationalize data. Tom details three core elements: a dedicated data team, a centralized data dictionary, and a robust data supply chain to eliminate the 'data breadline.'8:55–11:06 · Harry pushing back 3/10 Building a Data-Driven Culture and Leadership Mindset Harry asks about fostering a transparent data culture and challenges the notion of 'stop listening to your boss.' Tom clarifies that leadership authority remains vital, but employees should back their arguments with data rather than pure opinion.11:06–13:10 · Harry pushing back 1/10 Applying Data Science to Structured Recruitment Harry references research from Adam Grant on interview efficacy and mentions his connection to Greenhouse's founder. Tom outlines structured interviewing methodologies and key recruiting speed metrics.13:10–19:47 · Harry pushing back 3/10 Balancing Quantitative Metrics with Human Emotion Harry challenges pure quantitative decision-making by asking how human emotion fits into hiring and leadership. Tom illustrates cognitive concepts using real-world psychology cases, including the Monty Hall problem and Kahneman's West Point experiment.19:47–24:16 · Harry pushing back 1/10 Quickfire Round: Writing Process, Case Studies, and Investments In a rapid-fire sequence, Harry asks about writing tools, historical data lessons, exemplary data-driven companies like ThredUp, and Tom's investment in Dremio.

speaking balance: gold is Harry, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)

0:00 · Harry 87.6% · guest 12.4%0:00 · Harry 87.6% · guest 12.4%3:00 · Harry 10.3% · guest 89.7%3:00 · Harry 10.3% · guest 89.7%6:00 · Harry 21.2% · guest 78.8%6:00 · Harry 21.2% · guest 78.8%9:00 · Harry 37.7% · guest 62.3%9:00 · Harry 37.7% · guest 62.3%12:00 · Harry 25.3% · guest 74.7%12:00 · Harry 25.3% · guest 74.7%15:00 · Harry 15.7% · guest 84.3%15:00 · Harry 15.7% · guest 84.3%18:00 · Harry 27.2% · guest 72.8%18:00 · Harry 27.2% · guest 72.8%21:00 · Harry 17.7% · guest 82.3%21:00 · Harry 17.7% · guest 82.3%24:00 · Harry 87.7% · guest 12.3%24:00 · Harry 87.7% · guest 12.3%
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 10:53 Reframing 'stop listening to your boss'

Tom gently pushes back on Harry's literal interpretation of his headline, explaining that authoritative leadership remains necessary alongside data-driven autonomy.

 Hardest push from Harry ▶ 13:10 Pushing for human emotion in data-driven culture

Harry presses against a purely metric-driven philosophy, arguing that candidate cultural fit and human emotional intuition must play a key role in decision-making.

 Biggest teaching moment ▶ 18:06 Explaining the illusion of validity via West Point experiment

Tom educates Harry on cognitive biases using Daniel Kahneman's West Point study, demonstrating how experts often possess false confidence in predictive capabilities.

 Harry holds his own ▶ 11:06 Citing Adam Grant on interview productivity statistics

Harry displays host expertise by citing organizational psychologist Adam Grant's statistic that unstructured interviews are productive only eight percent of the time.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
ChapterTopicHarry as informed peerGuest teachingGuest disagreementHarry pushing backWhy
Early Realizations of the Power of Data 2300 Harry opens the conversation by asking Tom about his initial realization of the power of data. Tom shares personal anecdotes from working at a law firm in Chile at age 17 and later on the Google AdSense team.
The Motivation Behind 'Winning With Data' 2312 Harry playfully teases Tom about why it took so long to write the book given his prolific blogging. Tom explains the motivation behind the book, citing insights from SaaS angel investors and Redpoint's partnership with Looker.
Three Foundations of Operationalizing Data 2500 Harry asks how top companies operationalize data. Tom details three core elements: a dedicated data team, a centralized data dictionary, and a robust data supply chain to eliminate the 'data breadline.'
Building a Data-Driven Culture and Leadership Mindset 3413 Harry asks about fostering a transparent data culture and challenges the notion of 'stop listening to your boss.' Tom clarifies that leadership authority remains vital, but employees should back their arguments with data rather than pure opinion.
Applying Data Science to Structured Recruitment 4401 Harry references research from Adam Grant on interview efficacy and mentions his connection to Greenhouse's founder. Tom outlines structured interviewing methodologies and key recruiting speed metrics.
Balancing Quantitative Metrics with Human Emotion 5613 Harry challenges pure quantitative decision-making by asking how human emotion fits into hiring and leadership. Tom illustrates cognitive concepts using real-world psychology cases, including the Monty Hall problem and Kahneman's West Point experiment.
Quickfire Round: Writing Process, Case Studies, and Investments 2401 In a rapid-fire sequence, Harry asks about writing tools, historical data lessons, exemplary data-driven companies like ThredUp, and Tom's investment in Dremio.

Statements from this episode (9)

Assertion Supported
Tunguz: Google AdSense was neck-and-neck with Yahoo in early 2005
“Early 2005, we were neck and neck with Yahoo, which was the big competitor trying to run ads on other people's websites.”
Tomasz Tunguz Sep 12, 2016 ▶ 3:47
Disclosure
Tunguz: How Google used its search index to track Yahoo's ad share
“He and I built a tool using the Google search index to figure out exactly where Yahoo ads were running, where Google ads were running, and basically every day we could tell you exactly what the competitive market share would be.”
Tomasz Tunguz Sep 12, 2016 ▶ 4:05
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Tunguz: Top data teams at Facebook and Zendesk focus on internal education
“The first is they have a data team, and there's this data, and that, this exists at Facebook, it exists at Zendesk, and these data teams, they, they're structured a little bit differently, but they all basically do the same thing. They're the experts. They kno…”
Tomasz Tunguz Sep 12, 2016 ▶ 6:41
Assertion Supported
Tunguz: Unstructured job interviews predict employee success only 8% of the time
“Unstructured interviews, which is when we interview people by asking just kind of the typical questions, can only predict success in about eight percent of the cases, which is far worse than a coin flip. And so what Adam Grant, who's a professor in this field,…”
Tomasz Tunguz Sep 12, 2016 ▶ 11:28
Insight
Tunguz: Human emotion is essential to decision-making under imperfect information
“We never have perfect information. And the way that we get from not making a decision to making a decision is we use our emotions. So emotions are a really important part of the decision-making process.”
Tomasz Tunguz Sep 12, 2016 ▶ 14:16
Assertion Supported
Tunguz: Google required product manager candidates to score 3.5 out of 4.0
“I remember at Google, when we were interviewing product managers, we would take these packets and we would have all these different, we were doing structured interviews at the time. It was on a four point O scale. You need to score above a 3.5.”
Tomasz Tunguz Sep 12, 2016 ▶ 14:28
Insight
Tunguz: Hiring committees must allow debate rather than relying strictly on metrics
“You're not hiring exclusively based upon the metrics that are coming out of the interviews. There needs to be an advocate inside of the hiring committee, and people need to argue back and forth, and I think that's where the emotional component definitely comes…”
Tomasz Tunguz Sep 12, 2016 ▶ 14:41
Assertion Partly supported
Tunguz: ThredUp processes 20,000 to 30,000 clothing items daily across four facilities
“A company called ThredUp, which is the world's largest secondhand clothing store. And they process 20 to 30,000 items of clothing per day that go into four distribution centers.”
Tomasz Tunguz Sep 12, 2016 ▶ 22:10
Insight
Tunguz: HR data analytics is the next massive opportunity in enterprise software
“It used to be that the two people inside of a board meeting that, that didn't have data at the board meetings were the head of marketing and the head of people. And now the head of marketing and the marketing team has been fully instrumented. And so the last, …”
Tomasz Tunguz Sep 12, 2016 ▶ 23:12
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