Mar 20, 2023 · 1h 6m · news
Bill Ackman: SVB Collapse; Biden vs Trump; How I Lost $400M on Netflix; Bill's 10-Year Long | E991 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
0:00 / 0:00
▶ Watch on YouTube →
gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
In this extensive interview with Harry Stebbings, billionaire investor Bill Ackman details his investment philosophy, analyzes systemic economic issues like the SVB collapse, and shares profound personal lessons on resilience, marriage, and philanthropy.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. Harry holds 12.1% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
Harry as informed peer 2.8 Guest teaching 3.3 Guest disagreement 2.0 Harry pushing back 2.1
speaking balance: gold is Harry, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 28:02 Flat denial of regional bank short positions
Ackman forcefully interrupts and refutes Harry's premise about shorting regional banks, clarifying that he holds zero positions to maintain public credibility.
Hardest push from Harry ▶ 36:09 Challenging universal deposit guaranteesHarry directly challenges Ackman's proposal for broad deposit guarantees by asking whether it removes market constraints and enables moral hazard.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 19:30 Derivative pricing and asymmetric payoff mechanicsAckman educates Harry on asymmetric payoff structures using call option mechanics on two-year Treasury yields.
Harry holds his own ▶ 29:24 Identifying mark-to-market risk on regional bank assetsHarry demonstrates keen financial expertise by questioning whether regional banks remain exposed to mark-to-market asset risks if interest rates rise further.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | Harry as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | Harry pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raising the First Fund for Gotham Partners | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | Harry asks open-ended introductory questions about Ackman's HBS background and raising Gotham Partners' first fund. Ackman candidly shares how pitching wealthy entrepreneurs and Warren Buffett devotees helped secure $3.1M without any track record. | |
| Business Partnerships, Trust, and Spidey Sense | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | Ackman shares an anecdote about living with his partner David Berkowitz and reframes Harry's question on whether trust is earned or default, arguing gut intuition and contextual need dictate trust. | |
| Running Toward Happiness and Managing Volatility | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | Harry probes Ackman's past career lows including Gotham's wind-down and MBIA white paper battle. Ackman counters the premise that he is running away from something, emphasizing instead that he runs toward happiness and self-actualization. | |
| Position Sizing, Timidity, and the Netflix Investment | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | Ackman details position sizing and the $400M Netflix loss alongside timid sizing on interest rate hedges. He pushes back on media narratives that overemphasize headline losses while ignoring long-term compounding winners. | |
| The Purpose of Publicity and the Value of Free Speech | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | Harry asks why Ackman maintains such a public profile compared to peers. Ackman explains public advocacy as an essential tool for shareholder persuasion and highlights financial independence as a prerequisite for free speech. | |
| The Silicon Valley Bank Collapse and Regional Banking Reforms | 6 | 5 | 4 | 5 | Harry directly challenges Ackman on short positions in regional banks and moral hazard. Ackman forcefully clarifies he has zero short positions in banks to preserve objectivity and educates Harry on FDIC deposit guarantee mechanics. | |
| Interest Rates, Inflation, and Immigration Reform | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | Ackman outlines macroeconomic options to curb wage inflation, favoring expanded immigration over continued Federal Reserve rate hikes, and discusses potential 2024 political candidates. | |
| Defining Wealth, Philanthropy, and Independence | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | Harry asks about Ackman's personal relationship to money. Ackman pushes back on equating money to self-worth, reframing wealth purely as a source of independence, free speech, and philanthropic leverage. | |
| Maintaining a Compatible and Close Marriage | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | Ackman discusses key lessons for a successful marriage with Neri Oxman, rejecting the 'opposites attract' myth in favor of deep core compatibility and active time management. | |
| Parenting and Instilling Drive in Privileged Children | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | Harry asks how to instill work ethic in children raised with financial privilege. Ackman shares early work lessons from his upbringing like waxing cars and negotiating piece-rate pay for digging ditches. | |
| Quick-Fire Round on Inflation, Mentors, and Universal Music Group | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | In a quick-fire round, Ackman outlines persistent 3-4% inflation expectations, picks Universal Music Group as a 10-year long, and explains technical regulatory reasons behind the SEC rejection of his SPAC deal. | |
| Solving Wealth Inequality and Macroeconomic Outlook | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | Harry presses Ackman on wealth inequality and tax policy. Ackman proposes birthright investment accounts for all Americans while criticizing the Biden wealth tax as destructive to venture capital startups. |
Statements from this episode (29)
Ackman: Biden wealth tax will bankrupt every startup in America
“You know, the Biden wealth tax, which is like, 25% of the appreciation of things that you own privately, it's going to bankrupt every startup. No one will ever start a business in America anymore, right?”
Ackman Raised $3.1 Million From Six LPs to Launch Gotham Partners
“But we had I think we eventually saw well over a hundred people, and we had six people ultimately say yes and give us money, and the six people totaled, look, 3.1 million dollars. Actually three million, and my partner and I put up a hundred together.”
Four of Gotham Partners' Debut LPs Were Forbes 400 Billionaires
“But of the original six, four of the six were in the four, 400 wealthiest people in America.”
Ackman: Established Entrepreneurs Are Receptive First LPs for Young Managers
“And what was interesting is the people who were entrepreneurs really liked the idea of backing a couple of young guy, a couple of young guys who were entrepreneurs. And I think that was a big part of the connection.”
Ackman: Disappointments in Business Came From Ignoring Initial Gut Instincts
“Probably, probably neither but I would say I form a view of a person's character pretty quickly, and the vast majority of the time I've been right with only a few disappointments, I would say. And the disappointments have been cases, in most cases, and there h…”
Ackman: Plenty of Capital Exists for Second-Time Founders Who Failed
“There's plenty of capital available for people who are second time founders and the first one was not a successful exit.”
Ackman: Pershing Square Invests Exclusively in Liquid Large-Cap Public Companies
“We built Pershing Square to invest only in, you know, liquid large cap public companies and it's served us really well.”
Ackman: Missing Out on Big Winners Can Be Worse Than Losing Capital
“Missing Google can be a, you know, as important a mistake, or maybe even a bigger mistake, if you will, than missing You know, the next, like some other making a bad investment that doesn't work, I guess is my fault.”
Ackman: Pershing Square Lost $400 Million Exiting Netflix Position
“So we took about a billion dollar position in Netflix after the stock fell about 50%. And then, you know, we're a long term investor, but we learned information within a few months of the initial investment, i.e. The next quarter's results at Colt, caused us t…”
Ackman: Pershing Square made $2.8B hedging interest rates but was "timid"
“We should have made ten billion dollars on, on hedging interest rate risk. Instead we made 2.8 billion because we were a little timid.”
Ackman: 90% of Pershing Square Investments Over 20 Years Were Profitable
“The reality is, 90% of the investments we've made in the last 20 years have been profitable. In fact, meaningfully profitable.”
Ackman: Fed Chair Jay Powell Follows Him on Twitter Anonymously
“I'm quite sure he actually follows me, you know, not under the name Jay Powell.”
Ackman: Lack of SVB Guarantee Would Have Caused Regional Bank Runs
“Woke up Saturday morning after the events of the week, pretty convinced that if the government didn't, at a minimum, guarantee deposits at Silicon Valley Bank, we'd have a massive run at pretty much every regional bank on Monday.”
Ackman: Pershing Square has never gone long or short regional banks
“We have never been short regional banks. We've never been long regional banks.”
Ackman: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are Pershing Square's only financial holdings
“The only financial institutions we own are Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which we've owned for years, which are kind of, if you will, options on a potential restructuring of those institutions years from now.”
Ackman: SVB was unique in its disproportionate long-duration asset exposure
“Silicon Valley Bank was, I would say, unique in the disproportionate amount of exposure they had to, kind of, long-duration fixed-income assets versus other banks.”
Ackman: Pershing Square holds fund cash in U.S. Treasuries to avoid bank risk
“Other than cash we need for daily needs, we keep that number pretty small everything else is in a U.S. Treasury money market account, or we own U.S. Treasury bills directly. So we're not taking bank risks, we're just facing the U.S. Sovereign. And then the cas…”
Ackman: Decent chance Fed Chair Powell pauses interest rate hikes
“And so I think there's a decent chance Powell says, you know, we've, we're not raising rates.”
Ackman: Expanding immigration is the best way to curb inflation
“The best way to solve that problem is to open up immigration, right? Why, why force people out of work to slow the economy to get rid of inflation? Why not increase the supply of workers so that you know, we temper the increases in wages? I just think it's a b…”
Ackman: Donald Trump would defeat Joe Biden in a presidential matchup
“If it's Biden, Trump, I think Trump wins.”
Ackman: A business leader running as a Democrat could defeat Trump
“And I think they can absolutely get the Democratic nominee And against Trump, they'll get the you know, the center and center right part of the Republican Party and can win.”
Ackman: Open to entering politics if his day job gets boring
“Someday. I'm open to it. Someday when my day job gets boring. I don't think my day job's gonna get boring.”
Ackman: For-Profit Models Solve Most Problems Better Than Philanthropy
“And what I've learned from that is that philanthropy is, is often not the solution to many problems and that you know, business and for-profit business models are much more effective solutions to problems, most problems.”
Ackman: 98% of a successful marriage depends on partner selection
“So it starts with finding the right person, I would say. That's about 98%. You can have, you can choose the wrong person, and you can do all the right things, and it's not going to make for a great marriage. So I would say, it's a lot in the selection, the mut…”
Ackman: Beyond basic security and education, housing wealth does not impact child development
“I don't know that it matters so much whether you live in a 300,000 dollar house Or a two million dollar house, or a twenty million dollar house, or whether your parents drive a Toyota. You know, I think that the major differences are, you have access to a good…”
Ackman predicts persistent 3% to 4% inflation for foreseeable future
“The world is a structurally different place than it was for the last 20 odd years, and you're going to see persistent levels of inflation, you know, three to four percent inflation for the foreseeable future. I think that, that's certainly being missed based o…”
Ackman: Universal Music Group is the best 10-year long holding
“Well, I would say of the businesses we own, I would say in an uncertain world, you got to own universal music company, universal music group. Because the one thing I'm confident about is more people will have music subscriptions or be streaming music from what…”
Ackman: Monopolistic legacy companies are guaranteed to be disrupted by blockchain
“There are businesses that are guaranteed to be disrupted by blockchain that are old fashioned, old, you know, businesses that everyone hates because they're monopolists and you can disrupt them with blockchain technology. So I would be short those companies.”
Shorts cut from this episode
▶ #1 Parenting Tip for Wealthy People — Billionaire Bill Ackma (@49:44)
▶ Bill Ackman: Why I didn’t short the banks 🏦 · 20VC with Har (@28:03)
▶ Does growing up rich make you lazy?💰 · 20VC with Harry Steb (@49:44)
▶ Why the Media Targeted my $400M Loss 📉 · 20VC with Harry St (@22:13)
▶ How to Save First Republic Bank 🏦🤔 · 20VC with Harry Stebb (@29:49)