The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 70 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Kuno: Cryotherapy enables rheumatoid arthritis patients to stop immunosuppressive drugs
“So we have people as an example with rheumatoid arthritis, and many of them were on immunosuppressive agents. You've heard about Humira and all these advertised, right? They bring your immune system down to manage the overreaction that causes this joint proble…”
Morris: The US Housing Market Will Not Crash in 2026
“Will the housing market crash in 2026? Short answer, no. The data says the opposite, and this week proved it.”
Morris: The next 24 months are the decade's best real estate opportunity
“So, to say it plainly, I believe the next 18 to 24 months represent one of the best real estate buying windows we will see in this entire decade.”
Morris: ARM resets will trigger big discounts on distressed real estate
“The distressed assets are distressed because people bought them at a much lower interest rate. When that interest rate adjusts, it's going to become a, it's, when those interest rates adjust, the mortgages are going to go up to a rate that people cannot afford…”
Morris claims no losses across 25 years of real estate investing
“Having invested for more than 25 years and having never lost money in a real estate deal sounds absolutely incredible.”
Morris: Property buyers with resetting adjustable loans will get crushed in 2025
“People are in 20, 25 are going to get crushed. Here's why. They bought retail five years ago. Lots of properties. They may be on a 30 year payment plan, but the interest rate could adjust at five years or seven years. Yeah. As those come up, now interest rates…”
Morris: The Fed Will Not Cut Interest Rates in Near Future
“The Fed is not going to rescue your deal with a rate cut in the near future”
Morris: Fed debate centers on rate hikes rather than cuts
“This week, the Federal Reserve meets, and for the first time in years, the live debate is not whether there's going to be a rate cut, but rather whether there's going to be a rate hike.”
Owen: Made $300,000 Net Profit Off A $500 Investment In Three Days
“I've had deals where I bought them and put 500 bucks into it and made 300 grand or net profit in less than three days.”
Morris: US Housing Market Will Not Crash in 2026
“Is
The housing market actually going to crash in 2026, and based off the latest data, the answer is no.”
Morris: Institutional homebuyer ban will not crater US housing prices
“So don't expect this law to crater prices. It's not going to.”
Morris: Capital leaving SaaS will rotate into hard assets and real estate
“Huge shift in the way internet and online investing is taking place, and really that shift, a lot of it, I believe, will go to hard assets, and that definitely includes real estate.”
Mike Lazerow: AI Will Eliminate Work Currently Outsourced Overseas
“So if you're sending work overseas, which you're not doing in real estate, chances are that AI is going to eliminate that.”
Mike Lazerow: Human Real Estate Broker Relationships Will Never Disappear
“The relationship, the trusted relationship between a broker and a buyer in this very emotional and seller, very emotional transaction, I don't think is ever going away.”
Morris: Remote work is permanent and office occupancy will not recover
“The remote work shift is permanent. The occupancy story doesn't recover.”
Baucom: Art fund sees immediate 20-30% value bumps before capital deployment
“A lot of the pieces when we buy them, we immediately, because we have that information, They'll immediately be bumped up by 20, 30%. And that's just even before we've even deployed the capital out to whoever we're buying it from. So we usually will buy in that…”
Morris: Has Invested in Real Estate for 30 Years Without Losing Money
“I've invested in real estate for 30 years. I've never lost money on a deal.”
Kahlo: Ground-up real estate developments deliver at least 70% annualized returns
“Cash on cash, they are at least in the 70% annualized cash on cash. On a development deal, ground up construction, at least 70% on your money. But a hundred percent, doubling your money, a hundred percent return is not unheard of. There is a lot of projects ou…”
Kahlo: Broad stock market returns are much lower than the S&P 500
“So if you want to compare it fairly, look at the stock market as a whole. Maybe take up, you know, pin sheets and all that stuff that, that are listed on the NASDAQ, S&P, and everything, and then compare it to a real estate market. I guarantee that to you that…”
Kahlo: Rental property yields are definitely higher than stock dividends
“There is no way that If you look at the percentages, what you're collecting on your rent, what your rental income is, and if you measure it against the money that you put out, the percentage of dividend, if you want to call it, you're getting from a rental is …”
Morris: Professional developers will rebuild in Pacific Palisades in 18 months
“The pros are going to go in and they're going to build in 18 months easy.”
David Bailey says Bird Streets luxury developers now lose $5M-$7M per house
“The metrics on those homes were that the developers were generally making between five and seven million a house, and now the entire opposite is true. They're losing between five and seven million a house.”
Morris secured his deeply discounted luxury home on the open market.
“That's the myth. Because I did not buy the house. It was not off market. It was on the market.”
Sani: Government funding for Section 8 in California won't dry up
“The city, the state is going to continue to receive this funding from the government, if not from the local, but from the federal, they're always going back and forth with it. What are you going to do? So I don't see the money drying up necessarily.”
Morris: Real estate returns matched the stock market's recent massive run
“I definitely missed a great run, for sure. I know I did just as well with my real estate investments in my self-directed IRA.”
Morris says immediately cash-flowing value-add properties do not exist in LA
“You're not going to find a value add property. And that's my third rule is value add. We'll get to that next, but you're not going to find, you're not going to find a value added property. That's going to cashflow in Los Angeles period.”
Go: Active co-development project will exit at $20 million
“The one that I'm actively working right now is going to have an exit of twenty million.”
Go: No client has ever lost money on properties she sold
“I have never had a client lose money. They've always made money on anything I've ever sold them. Most of them, a lot of money. Like, my clients have made on single family spec for sure hundreds of millions of dollars, right?”
Morris: Mortgage quotes will embed risk premiums until Strait of Hormuz settles
“And the bottom line is until the Strait of Hormuz is genuinely settled, That risk premium, the premium of this uncertainty will live inside every rate you're quoted.”
Morris: Real estate sellers prefer negotiating terms over cutting prices
“Right now, Sellers are more often willing to negotiate terms than they are to cut price. That's my experience. And I think the market is showing that”
Morris: Fed Stance on Energy Spikes Will Dictate Near-Term Mortgage Rates
“Did the Fed treat the oil spike and gasoline cost spike as temporary or as a real threat? That answer will set the direction of mortgage rates for the near future.”
Owen: One In Five Contacted Sellers Open To Direct Off-Market Offers
“Out of sellers that we talked to about a potential offer in their home, one out of five might be open to a direct offer versus going on the market.”
Owen: LA County ADUs Cost ~$200/Sq Ft And Rent For $2,400 Monthly
“We could build ADU units for 202 120 square foot, even in LA County. And I could rent these for a minimum, 10% of that. Right. So like if you're, you know, a thousand square foot ADU or junior ADU might cost me a 180 to 220,000 to build, but I can easily get 2…”
Morris: Fed will hold rates steady rather than cut soon
“Less inflation pressure means less reason for the fed to stay aggressive, which over time is friendly to mortgage rates. So It's, what's happening is that the inflationary pressure is not forcing the Fed to increase rates, but we're probably not at a point whe…”
Paul Morris Has Not Lost Money on Real Estate in 30 Years
“In 30 years of investing, I have not lost money on a single deal in, in real estate investing.”
Morris: Mortgage rates could hit 6.5% to 6.7% if conflict extends
“In 48 hours, mortgage rates jump back above six percent. They're now a fair amount higher than that and potentially heading as high as six and a half to 6.7% if the conflict extends.”
Morris: Multifamily construction drought will cause shortage by 2027
“If you're a patient, disciplined buyer, that supply drought translates into a shortage by twenty-twenty-seven and continuing on.”
Morris: Maturing Debt Will Force Commercial Property Owners to Sell in Distress
“Those folks are going to have to sell. They're not able to refinance in a new loan or keep the loan that they have that adjusts from three percent to, say, five and a half or six percent. It will totally wipe out their profits and turn that particular project …”
Morris: Real estate developers reject deals projecting under 50% returns
“Merce's clients would Not take a deal. Absolutely not. Unless they were looking at a projected 50% return. Now, you know, things happen and there's risk involved and that's why they're looking for a 50% return, but they do just as often a 60, 70, 80 as they do…”
Morris: Politicians likely won't get both strong economic growth and rate cuts
“Politicians from both sides of the aisle, they want the economy to do great, and they want rates to come down. They're likely not going to get both.”
Morris: 30-year mortgage rates will not see a major dip
“What this means is you can expect your 30 year mortgages to bounce roughly around where they are now. They may take a small reduction, but they're not going to take a major dip.”
Fifield: Real estate will see more female developers taking loan risk
“In the future, we'll see more. You see Jeanie Gang. You see people, and she's also a really nice person, a very thoughtful person. You will see more women. You know, Jeanie's an architect, right? So she's not really signing the loan. She gets a lot of credit, …”
Morris: Safferis will get 30% more per square foot for Topanga house
“At the end of the day, you are going to get 30% more per square foot when you sell that house.”
Morris: Three-to-four bedroom Airbnbs are saturated in Joshua Tree
“Three to four bedrooms and Joshua tree are saturated.”
Stepp: Commercial sellers often reject full-price offers based on buyer reputation
“Many times I'll tell the seller this, the backstory of a buyer and sometimes they won't even count or even if it's at full price based on the personality and then the reputation of the person.”
Stepp: Over-Leveraged 2020-2022 Property Acquisitions Are Creating Distressed Deals
“Deals that were bought in 20 to 20, 20, 20, 22, they were over leveraged. Those are the opportunity because people are in distress situations now and that it's kind of like a feeding frenzy.”