The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 119 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Morris: OpenAI and Anthropic Have Both Filed to Go Public
“OpenAI and Anthropic have both filed to go public next.”
Morris: Fed Minutes Show Majority Open to Raising Rates
“The May meeting minutes revealed that the majority of Fed officials now see the possibility of raising rates if the war continues and if inflation persists as a result of it.”
Morris: SpaceX Lost Over $4B in the Previous Quarter
“SpaceX lost over four billion dollars last quarter.”
Morris: SpaceX Is Raising Capital to Build AI Data Centers
“SpaceX is raising this money partly to build AI data centers and infrastructure.”
Mike Lazerow: Etched's AI Chip Is 10x Faster Than Nvidia's
“They just announced, you know, they raised five hundred million at a five billion dollar valuation. Significant orders, because their stuff is 10 times faster than NVIDIA's fastest, fastest chip. Half the cost, half the energy.”
Morris: US and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran, killing supreme leader
“February 28th, more than three weeks ago, the U.S. And Israel launched joint strikes on Iran. Operation Epic Fury. That's the actual US term for it. And they killed Iran's supreme leader and dozens of their senior military officials.”
Dr. Jonas Kuno: Low-dose naltrexone improves cancer outcomes by reducing inflammation
“One of the latest things in cancer research, which was interesting, there is a Microinflammatory environment that cancer cells need to thrive. They don't need oxygen. They like a low oxygen environment and they like an inflammatory environment. And so they're …”
Dr. Kuno: Preclinical Studies Show Ivermectin Triggers Cancer Cell Apoptosis
“There's a combination of what is it? Mabendazole and ivermectin, for example. Couldn't say that word like three years ago, you know, but again, this was something that predates COVID. It's been studied to treat cancer. Has some good mechanism where triggers ap…”
Morris: $1T of Maturing Commercial Debt in 2026 Creates Massive Investment Opportunities
“20, 26, one trillion dollars worth of debt is going to mature. One hundred and twenty billion of that was taking it. Yeah. And then, and that's going to create real problems and it's going to create amazing opportunities.”
O'Neill: California is withholding funds and suing cities defying RHNA mandates
“Now, the governor and the state are coming down on them, and they're not providing dollars, state dollars, to these municipalities if they don't update their arena update their housing elements. And they're in fact suing them in the court, the state AG, if the…”
O'Neill: California AB 130 exempts sub-85ft market-rate projects from CEQA
“They just passed an ordinance, I think it was last week, AB- one-thirty. AB- one-thirty gets rid of, removes CEQA completely. One does not even have to go through CEQA permitting or the CEQA clearance at all for projects that are market rate and under 85 feet …”
O'Neill: LA's Executive Directive 1 Enables Affordable Housing via Private Equity
“Executive director, order one in the city of Los Angeles for building a hundred percent affordable housing is magical. It's been through multiple iterations right now, but it's still a very, very Viable thing to build affordable housing, not with LIHTC or usin…”
Morris: Proposed housing bill caps institutional buyers at 350 homes
“The actual truth of it is large institutional investors, the Wall Street players who already own 350 or more single-family homes would be barred from buying more single-family homes. So if they had a thousand Doesn't say you have to sell down to three 50. It j…”
Morris: SpaceX IPO Raised $75B at a $2.2 Trillion Valuation
“SpaceX recently went public on the NASDAQ. With the ticker SPCX in the largest IPO in the history of the stock market. It was, the IPO was priced at a dollar 35, but the markets opened at a dollar 50 and closed at just over a dollar 60. That's almost 20% rise …”
Morris: Salesforce lost $158B in market valuation by March 2026
“Salesforce, which was 16 months ago worth three hundred and thirty seven billion dollars. Today in March 2026 is worth a hundred and seventy nine billion dollars. That's a hundred and fifty eight billion dollars worth of value erased.”
Paul Morris: DeepSeek Replicated OpenAI's AI for Just $26 Million
“Open AI took so many years and billions of dollars to create this and then deep seek, you know, yeah. Oh, we see how you did it, and you know, twenty six million dollars, six months later, you've got something not as good, but, you know, and so on and so on.”
Morris: Persian Gulf oil production is down at least 10M barrels daily
“All combined Gulf oil production is down at least ten million barrels per day as of mid-March.”
Morris: Data center rents are up 50% since 2022
“Data centers, rents are up 50% since 2022. No other real estate sector is anywhere close.”
Baucom: Fine art values are completely uncorrelated with public markets
“Not at all correlated. So it is your alpha.”
Paul Morris: Insider Trading Is Entirely Legal in Real Estate
“You can absolutely trade on insider information in real estate.”
Morris: 91% of active stock fund managers underperform over 20 years
“And the real numbers are that over a 20 year, over a 20 year period of time, including the biggest funds and the ones that have really professional stock pickers, active investors over a 21 year, over a 20 year period, 91% underperformed.”
Scordo: Palm Springs seeks to cut vacation rental caps to 26 annually
“They're actually trying to lower the number of contracts you can have a year to 26 for even the people who are grandfathered in. It's a long, so, but I don't even hit, right now we're at 36”
O'Neill: California SB 1123 permits 10 homes by-right on R-1 parcels
“Our SB-Eleven-Twenty-Three which allows for 10 homes even on an R-One site or other multi-family sites. By right, ministerial. Ministerial means you don't have to go through any planning you don't have to go through any political type of process. You don't hav…”
Morris: Austin home values dropped 20% while Hartford rose 20%
“Since the peak of the market, Austin is down more than 20%, and Hartford, Connecticut is up more than 20%.”
Lane: Most markets permit short-term rentals via standardized registration
“Most markets though have moved to this a permitting process where short term rentals are allowed. You just need to get a permit. You need to tell them where it's going to be located and who to call if there's a problem.”
Lane: Dynamic pricing tools boost short-term rental revenue by 20%
“So the average listing generates 20% more revenue when they're using dynamic pricing tools than when they're not.”
Morris: Businesses can deduct reasonable rent for meetings at owner homes
“In the right entity structure, a business may be able to deduct reasonable rent for a genuine business meeting held at your home. And for, that could be, for example, the annual planning session, the board meeting, or even holiday party, while you The homeowne…”
Morris: An LLC does not save federal income tax by itself
“So here's what an LLC does not do. It does not save you federal income tax by itself. People think that and they'll say, well, you know, I could write off more if it were an LLC. I don't believe that to be true. If you could write it off because it's a true bu…”
Morris: Fewer Than 2% of US Mortgaged Homes Are Underwater
“Today, according to Cotality, which is the housing data firm, firmly known as CoreLogic, fewer than two out of every 100 homes with a mortgage owe more than the house is worth.”
Morris: Less than 2% of US homes are underwater on mortgages
“According to CoreLogic, less than two percent of homes in the United States are underwater, and contrast that with a financial crisis when the bottom really fell out of this market in 2009, and that was a massive 26%”
Morris: Futures Market Priced One-in-Three Odds of Fed Rate Hike
“Last week, futures market put the odds at one in three of a quarter point hike.”
Morris: Only 2% of Mortgaged US Homes Are Underwater Today
“In the last real crash, 2008, 2009, 26% of homes with a mortgage were underwater. Today, only about two percent.”
Morris: US Homeowners Hold $34 Trillion in Equity With $300,000 Average Cushion
“American homeowners are also sitting on roughly 34 trillion dollars of equity in their homes. And per CoreLogic homeowners with a mortgage hold nearly eighteen million of that equity. Five times what they had 15 years ago, and the average homeowner is sitting …”
Morris: 77 of 300 Largest US Metros Show Price Declines
“77 out of the 300 largest metros are posting year over year price declines. And they are concentrated in the Sun Belt.”
Morris: Austin Home Prices Dropped Over 20% From Peak
“Austin's down more than 20% off of its peak in 2022.”
Morris: Rochester Homes Sell in 11 Days Versus 105 in Asheville
“The typical home in Rochester, New York goes under contract in about 11 days. So you list the typical house in Rochester, 11 days later it's sold. In Asheville, North Carolina, You list the average house, and it sells in about a 105 days.”
Morris: Sun Belt housing inventory is above pre-pandemic levels
“So if you're a value buyer, point your search at the softening Sunbelt metros where inventory is above pre-pandemic levels and builders are cutting deals.”
US median existing home price hit $429K, rising for 35 straight months
“The median existing home price came in at 429,000 dollars, and that's up 1.3% from a year ago. That's the 35th consecutive month of year over year price increases. That is 35 straight months that prices have gone up.”
First-time buyers reached 35% of May sales as affordability index rose to 105.6
“First-time buyers were 35% of May sales, and NARS affordability index is at One oh 5.6. That's up from 97.5 a year ago”
Morris: Austin, Tampa, Miami, Orlando, and Dallas Led 2026 Price Drops
“And the five markets that took the hit the most in 20, 26 so far are Tampa, Austin, Austin leading the pack, Tampa, Miami, Orlando, and Dallas. Those are the five markets that have decelerated the most, that prices have gone down the most.”
Morris: Buyers Have Negotiating Room for First Time Since Pre-Pandemic
“You finally now have selection and negotiating room in most markets, something buyers haven't had since before the pandemic. Right now, sellers are negotiating. Credits, meaning you can ask for money back once you're in escrow. Credits are back. Contingencies,…”
Morris: Waiting to Buy Costs $4,000 Annual Equity at 1% Appreciation
“35 straight months of rising prices means that waiting has a cost. Every year you wait, even at a one percent appreciation rate on the average median home, which is about 430,000 dollars, you're giving up 4000 dollars in equity plus a year of principal pay dow…”
Goldman Sachs Delays Projected Fed Rate Cut to 2027
“Goldman Sachs just pushed its forecast for the next cut all the way out from 2026 to 20 27.”
Morris: OpenAI Hired the Creator of OpenClaw After a Bidding War
“And in fact, it created a bidding war for this particular gentleman who created it, who has now gone to open AI. So the creator, The former employee of Claude that created Claude bought separately has now been hired by OpenAI.”
Morris: US Struck Over 7,000 Targets in Iran
“The US has struck more than 7000 targets in Iran since it started.”