The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 179 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Morris: OpenAI and Anthropic Have Both Filed to Go Public
“OpenAI and Anthropic have both filed to go public next.”
Kuno: Umbilical cord stem cells recognize cancer cells and trigger apoptosis
“Umbilical cord stem cells are from newborns, from healthy c-section births. It's the birth tissue that usually gets discarded. Now, these cells don't have a fingerprint. They become your own cells to some extent, but they also recognize cancer cells, and they …”
Morris: Fed Minutes Show Majority Open to Raising Rates
“The May meeting minutes revealed that the majority of Fed officials now see the possibility of raising rates if the war continues and if inflation persists as a result of it.”
Morris: SpaceX Lost Over $4B in the Previous Quarter
“SpaceX lost over four billion dollars last quarter.”
Morris: SpaceX Is Raising Capital to Build AI Data Centers
“SpaceX is raising this money partly to build AI data centers and infrastructure.”
Mike Lazerow: Etched's AI Chip Is 10x Faster Than Nvidia's
“They just announced, you know, they raised five hundred million at a five billion dollar valuation. Significant orders, because their stuff is 10 times faster than NVIDIA's fastest, fastest chip. Half the cost, half the energy.”
Morris: US and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran, killing supreme leader
“February 28th, more than three weeks ago, the U.S. And Israel launched joint strikes on Iran. Operation Epic Fury. That's the actual US term for it. And they killed Iran's supreme leader and dozens of their senior military officials.”
Dr. Jonas Kuno: Low-dose naltrexone improves cancer outcomes by reducing inflammation
“One of the latest things in cancer research, which was interesting, there is a Microinflammatory environment that cancer cells need to thrive. They don't need oxygen. They like a low oxygen environment and they like an inflammatory environment. And so they're …”
Dr. Kuno: Preclinical Studies Show Ivermectin Triggers Cancer Cell Apoptosis
“There's a combination of what is it? Mabendazole and ivermectin, for example. Couldn't say that word like three years ago, you know, but again, this was something that predates COVID. It's been studied to treat cancer. Has some good mechanism where triggers ap…”
Morris: Institutional Investors Own Over 25% of Atlanta Housing Stock
“All you have to do is look at certain concentrated areas, and you look at a place like Atlanta, where more than 25% of the housing stock is owned by large institutional investors.”
Fifield: Landlords Can Remove Affordable Housing Designations by Moving Children In
“You can also use the Ellis act. And if you have your children that are living in this building, you can take affordable housing and make it market rate housing.”
Morris: $1T of Maturing Commercial Debt in 2026 Creates Massive Investment Opportunities
“20, 26, one trillion dollars worth of debt is going to mature. One hundred and twenty billion of that was taking it. Yeah. And then, and that's going to create real problems and it's going to create amazing opportunities.”
David Bailey claims real estate prices have fallen to 2015 levels
“The last 10 years of appreciation as of today have been wiped out. We are back to prices that we haven't seen since 2015.”
David Bailey claims San Francisco has 78 new AI-driven billionaires
“There are currently 78 new billionaires in the city of San Francisco, all as a result of AI.”
O'Neill: California is withholding funds and suing cities defying RHNA mandates
“Now, the governor and the state are coming down on them, and they're not providing dollars, state dollars, to these municipalities if they don't update their arena update their housing elements. And they're in fact suing them in the court, the state AG, if the…”
O'Neill: California AB 130 exempts sub-85ft market-rate projects from CEQA
“They just passed an ordinance, I think it was last week, AB- one-thirty. AB- one-thirty gets rid of, removes CEQA completely. One does not even have to go through CEQA permitting or the CEQA clearance at all for projects that are market rate and under 85 feet …”
O'Neill: LA's Executive Directive 1 Enables Affordable Housing via Private Equity
“Executive director, order one in the city of Los Angeles for building a hundred percent affordable housing is magical. It's been through multiple iterations right now, but it's still a very, very Viable thing to build affordable housing, not with LIHTC or usin…”
Art stored in international freeports like Geneva avoids capital gains tax
“Artists considered immune from capital gains tax, okay? If you sell your shares in, in a stock, you're taxed. Sell your Picasso, untouchable. You go into another country, now you put it into Geneva into a Freeport, you're not taxed, and that's legit.”
Morris: Proposed housing bill caps institutional buyers at 350 homes
“The actual truth of it is large institutional investors, the Wall Street players who already own 350 or more single-family homes would be barred from buying more single-family homes. So if they had a thousand Doesn't say you have to sell down to three 50. It j…”
Morris: SpaceX IPO Raised $75B at a $2.2 Trillion Valuation
“SpaceX recently went public on the NASDAQ. With the ticker SPCX in the largest IPO in the history of the stock market. It was, the IPO was priced at a dollar 35, but the markets opened at a dollar 50 and closed at just over a dollar 60. That's almost 20% rise …”
Morris: AI job creation is concentrating in secondary metropolitan markets
“AI related job creation, concentrating in secondary Metros, not just San Francisco, LA, New York City.”
Morris: Salesforce lost $158B in market valuation by March 2026
“Salesforce, which was 16 months ago worth three hundred and thirty seven billion dollars. Today in March 2026 is worth a hundred and seventy nine billion dollars. That's a hundred and fifty eight billion dollars worth of value erased.”
Paul Morris: DeepSeek Replicated OpenAI's AI for Just $26 Million
“Open AI took so many years and billions of dollars to create this and then deep seek, you know, yeah. Oh, we see how you did it, and you know, twenty six million dollars, six months later, you've got something not as good, but, you know, and so on and so on.”
Morris: Persian Gulf oil production is down at least 10M barrels daily
“All combined Gulf oil production is down at least ten million barrels per day as of mid-March.”
Morris: Data center rents are up 50% since 2022
“Data centers, rents are up 50% since 2022. No other real estate sector is anywhere close.”
Baucom: Fine art has beaten the S&P 500 over 25 years
“So with me, I found art is the safest way to do that because as you know, art has beat the S and P 500 for the last 25 years as well.”
Baucom: Fine art values are completely uncorrelated with public markets
“Not at all correlated. So it is your alpha.”
Morris: 98% of prostate cancer cases are indolent and non-lethal
“98% of prostate cancer is what is referred to as indolent, which means it essentially will not kill you.”
Dr. Kuno: Cancer Cells Rely on Fermentation Due to Mitochondrial Dysfunction
“And when you look at cancer cells, they have malfunctioning mitochondria. The mitochondria can't do this elaborate Citric acid cycle where they take sugar and makes 36 ATP per molecule. They can only ferment. It's a very primitive way of energy production, two…”
Morris: US Lacks Broad Guardrails Against Foreign Real Estate Ownership
“The narrow restrictions are only around military bases where, where it could be potentially sensitive for national security, but there is no ban and no regulation in terms of keeping Americans wealth in real estate in America and keeping the ownership of real …”
Paul Morris: Insider Trading Is Entirely Legal in Real Estate
“You can absolutely trade on insider information in real estate.”
Morris: 91% of active stock fund managers underperform over 20 years
“And the real numbers are that over a 20 year, over a 20 year period of time, including the biggest funds and the ones that have really professional stock pickers, active investors over a 21 year, over a 20 year period, 91% underperformed.”
Scordo: Palm Springs seeks to cut vacation rental caps to 26 annually
“They're actually trying to lower the number of contracts you can have a year to 26 for even the people who are grandfathered in. It's a long, so, but I don't even hit, right now we're at 36”
Stepp: Lenders Cap Commercial Real Estate Leverage at 50%
“Nobody's getting more than 50% loan. On anything. Underwriting.”
O'Neill: California SB 1123 permits 10 homes by-right on R-1 parcels
“Our SB-Eleven-Twenty-Three which allows for 10 homes even on an R-One site or other multi-family sites. By right, ministerial. Ministerial means you don't have to go through any planning you don't have to go through any political type of process. You don't hav…”
Morris: Austin home values dropped 20% while Hartford rose 20%
“Since the peak of the market, Austin is down more than 20%, and Hartford, Connecticut is up more than 20%.”
Lane: Most markets permit short-term rentals via standardized registration
“Most markets though have moved to this a permitting process where short term rentals are allowed. You just need to get a permit. You need to tell them where it's going to be located and who to call if there's a problem.”
Lane: Dynamic pricing tools boost short-term rental revenue by 20%
“So the average listing generates 20% more revenue when they're using dynamic pricing tools than when they're not.”
Morris: Businesses can deduct reasonable rent for meetings at owner homes
“In the right entity structure, a business may be able to deduct reasonable rent for a genuine business meeting held at your home. And for, that could be, for example, the annual planning session, the board meeting, or even holiday party, while you The homeowne…”
Morris: An LLC does not save federal income tax by itself
“So here's what an LLC does not do. It does not save you federal income tax by itself. People think that and they'll say, well, you know, I could write off more if it were an LLC. I don't believe that to be true. If you could write it off because it's a true bu…”
Morris: Fewer Than 2% of US Mortgaged Homes Are Underwater
“Today, according to Cotality, which is the housing data firm, firmly known as CoreLogic, fewer than two out of every 100 homes with a mortgage owe more than the house is worth.”
Morris: Futures market prices 70% odds of a September Fed hike
“The futures market currently puts it at roughly a seven in 10 odds on a quarter point hike By September. Not a cut. A hike.”
Morris: Less than 2% of US homes are underwater on mortgages
“According to CoreLogic, less than two percent of homes in the United States are underwater, and contrast that with a financial crisis when the bottom really fell out of this market in 2009, and that was a massive 26%”
Morris: Futures Market Priced One-in-Three Odds of Fed Rate Hike
“Last week, futures market put the odds at one in three of a quarter point hike.”
Morris: Only 2% of Mortgaged US Homes Are Underwater Today
“In the last real crash, 2008, 2009, 26% of homes with a mortgage were underwater. Today, only about two percent.”
Morris: US Homeowners Hold $34 Trillion in Equity With $300,000 Average Cushion
“American homeowners are also sitting on roughly 34 trillion dollars of equity in their homes. And per CoreLogic homeowners with a mortgage hold nearly eighteen million of that equity. Five times what they had 15 years ago, and the average homeowner is sitting …”