The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 29 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
David Bailey claims real estate prices have fallen to 2015 levels
“The last 10 years of appreciation as of today have been wiped out. We are back to prices that we haven't seen since 2015.”
David Bailey predicts California's economy will overtake Germany by 2026
“California next year will probably become the third largest economy, overtaking Germany.”
David Bailey claims San Francisco has 78 new AI-driven billionaires
“There are currently 78 new billionaires in the city of San Francisco, all as a result of AI.”
David Bailey opposes rent control generally but supports it for seniors
“I am not a proponent of rent control. I think it stifles, stifles development. It doesn't do what it's supposed to do. However, I am in favor of rent control for seniors, because I do not feel, based on increasing rents, that the elderly population should be, …”
David Bailey bought a Los Feliz property at a $1M COVID discount
“So when COVID hit in early 2020, prior to, just prior to it hitting, there was a building that came on the market in Los Feliz, and I was one of three people, I think, who had looked at it and walked some of the units. Anyway, we ended up in a multiple offer s…”
Bailey: U.S. tax code is completely discriminatory against W-2 earners
“The U.S. Tax code is completely discriminatory against W-two earners.”
David Bailey says Bird Streets luxury developers now lose $5M-$7M per house
“The metrics on those homes were that the developers were generally making between five and seven million a house, and now the entire opposite is true. They're losing between five and seven million a house.”
Bailey: Fixed repair costs erode rental yields in low-cost housing markets
“So in proportion, your repairs and maintenance in proportion to your rents, even though the only reason you're getting that one percent in Kalamazoo is you have a very low house valuation. Yeah. However, when you go to refurbish that house after the tenant mov…”
David Bailey says real estate buyers should never represent themselves
“One thing I've learned through the years, do not represent yourself. You will not get the deal, and you are cheating yourself of potentially getting a good investment. So of course, I let each of the agents represent me.”
Bailey: Partial plumbing repipes waste money and owners should do a full repipe
“There's no such thing as a partial repipe. All you are doing is burning money. You do a full re-pipe, or you don't do a re-pipe.”
David Bailey is writing off a 6,000-pound exotic car in year one
“Yeah, we just purchased an exotic car for a significant amount of dollars, and we're writing the entire thing off year one.”
David Bailey skips professional property inspectors in favor of direct trades
“I do not use professional inspectors for professional inspectors. You know, the expression cover your ass. All you're going to get is a lengthy report. That's going to cite every deficiency because they're going to get paid 1500 dollars, and if they make any m…”
Bailey: Rental demand is at record highs while new building is virtually impossible
“Because cost is so prohibitively expensive in this city for housing, the demand for rentals has never been greater. At the same time, it's virtually impossible to build.”
David Bailey never sells real estate, only buying when seeing opportunity
“And then I never sell. Agents call me all the time. And one of the things is that I'm not interested in selling. I'm always interested in buying if I see opportunity.”
Bailey: Matching new acquisitions to portfolio comps reliably predicts operating expenses
“When I'm looking at properties, what first thing I do is I say, what building is this similar to that I currently own? Because based on, you know, the year built, the flat pitched roof, blah, blah, blah. And I can generally find Two or three of my current port…”
Bailey: 10-year fixed-rate financing protects cash flow through any market cycle
“They could have hedged their investment if they had, Gone right into fixed rate financing. Going out 10 years, which rides you through any market, maintain your cash flow, whereas your equity is going up and down.”
David Bailey caps his 400-unit real estate portfolio leverage at 20%
“I don't think my leverage on my overall portfolio exceeds 17 or 20%.”
Bailey: Low-interest-rate loans are keeping the real estate market frozen
“Well, you're one of the reasons why our real estate market is currently frozen. You and everyone else that took these low interest rate loans are not moving.”
David Bailey took $1.7M cost segregation write-off on $7M Malibu rental
“I bought a Malibu beach house back in 21 for seven million. And I think I ended up with a cost seg right off of about a 1,000,007 because they use as a rental.”
Bailey: $27 Billion Invested into San Francisco Over Past Year
“In the last 12 months, twenty-seven billion dollars has gone into San Francisco.”
Bailey: San Francisco $20M+ Home Sales Reached All-Time High
“They've had more homes sell over twenty million in the last year than ever.”
Bailey: Flipping Pitfall Is Inability to Control Exit Timing
“One of the additional challenges with that is you can't control when you're exiting your deal. You, all of a sudden, the market turns on you, and it happens to be when your house is finished, and your profit is quickly gone.”
David Bailey expects a $1.4M first-year write-off from two acquisitions
“I've already done a preliminary study, and the one building I'm buying for approximately 4.7 million, that one is gonna throw a write-off off of about 800,000 year one. The second building, which I'm doing the reverse, 10 31 tax free exchange, due to the fact …”
Bailey: Type M Copper Plumbing Fails in Residential Buildings
“For those of you who don't know, M copper plumbing is an, is a it's a cheaper form of Plumbing and it ends up getting little leaks. It doesn't do well with hot water. It's okay for office buildings. Not good for residential. And so you want L plumbing.”
David Bailey says novice real estate investors should buy two-to-four-unit properties
“If I were starting out and I was looking at my first acquisition, I would focus on a two to four unit property. That's because you're gonna get preferential financing, because up to four units is single family financing, and then look at a building where you c…”
Bailey: Property value drops do not matter if cash flow is protected
“If you focus on cashflow, cashflow, cashflow. It doesn't matter if tomorrow your property drops, 10% of value. It doesn't matter because your cashflow is still your cashflow.”
David Bailey's $510k West Hollywood building now grosses $200k annually
“And I 10 31 into a small apartment building in West Hollywood, which I still own to this day. And I paid 510,000 dollars for that property. And today the property gross is 200,000 a year. And it has no mortgage.”