why aren't all 119 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Morris: $1.5 trillion in commercial loans face mandatory refinancing by 2026
“Close to one trillion dollars in loans taken out at three to four percent interest rates, Are coming due right now. Combined with 2025, we're looking at one and a half trillion that are forced to have a refinancing event.”
Assertion Supported
Morris: Knoxville Has One of the Highest US Inbound Migration Rates
“It is showing one of the largest migration rates in the United States for people coming in versus going out.”
Assertion Supported
Taylor: Serving as Mayor of Thousand Oaks While Avoiding City Business
“And then now I don't do business in my city, but I'm the mayor of Thousand Oaks.”
Assertion Supported
Kuno: Most Raw Dietary Supplement Ingredients Come From China
“Much of it comes from China.”
Assertion Supported
Morris: Invitation Homes and American Homes for Rent Own ~145k Homes Combined
“Invitation Homes owns Roughly about 85,000 homes and American homes for rent owns about 60,000, some say 61, 62,000 homes.”
Assertion Supported
Morris: Investors Owning 100+ Properties Control About 2% of US Housing Stock
“In real numbers, what we're looking at is investors that own a hundred homes or more control about two percent of the total housing stock. And that's according to CNBC that Quoted John Burns research.”
Assertion Supported
Morris: Institutional Investors Owning 1,000+ Properties Hold Under 0.5% of US Housing
“If you dial it down to a thousand homes, those are more institutional players and those institutional players hold Less than about a half a percent of the total stock of American houses.”
Assertion Supported
Kahlo: Experienced developers can borrow 100% of renovation costs with 10% down
“So a good developer, what they would do here, an experienced one, they will put down 10% of the purchase price, maybe 15, but at this, at these prices, they will let you get away with 10% of the purchase price, and you're borrowing a hundred percent of the ren…”
Assertion Supported
Stepp: 20x Gross Multiplier Deals Are No Longer Happening
“There's no more 20 times gross deals happening. There's certainly not. I'm shocked. I'm shocked. How low even the most prime locations are going on the gross rent multiplier level, cap rate level.”
Assertion Supported
Stepp: Austin multifamily market became oversaturated, causing high vacancy
“Austin's a hip town that everybody was like, oh my god, you have to buy in Austin. And yes, it's cheaper than United, I mean, in Los Angeles, but it's, but it got oversaturated with too much product. And then you can't rent your units, you have high vacancies,…”
Assertion Supported
Stepp: Investors Can Easily Buy 5-Cap Properties in Los Angeles
“If you're in this market, you can buy a five cap. Easily.”
Assertion Supported
Bailey: San Francisco $20M+ Home Sales Reached All-Time High
“They've had more homes sell over twenty million in the last year than ever.”
Assertion Supported
O'Neill: Major California Cities Have Passed Expedited Infill Housing Ordinances
“Most major cities like San Diego, San Francisco, San Jose, they also have similar ordinances for this as well.”
Assertion Supported
Raffae: Palmdale houses cost $400k and rent for $2.5k–$3k
“So you could still buy a house for 400,000. And you could rent it for between 2500 to 3000 dollars.”
Assertion Supported
AirDNA licenses MLS data to calculate yields for every US home for sale
“We license MLS data to then be able to run that calculation for every single home available for sale in the US.”
Assertion Supported
Lane: All San Diego short-term rental lottery applicants received permits
“San Diego did that, where they said we're okay with one percent of our housing stock being allocated towards short terminals. They had a lottery for hosts to then get one of those permits and they held this lottery and there wasn't even the, and everyone got a…”
Assertion Supported
Morris: Cost segregation allows 100% first-year depreciation on rental amenities
“There is a, you know, there's something called tax segregation where a lot of the amenities are, you can depreciate a hundred percent of the amenities in year one. And if somebody is a large or not even large earner, but if they're, you know, if they're paying…”
Assertion Supported
Lane: Short-term rental revenues are up 5% in 2026
“Short-term rental revenues have been going up and we've seen that extensively this year, and so far this year, overall revenues are up about five percent”
Assertion Supported
Lane: Short-term rental investment growth is near all-time lows at 2.5%
“We are seeing all time low levels of new investment in short term rentals today. So we had reached an all time low in 20, 25 and the, and thesis was that that was going to be the bottom and that we were going to go up from there in terms of new investment acti…”
Assertion Supported
Morris: Median Existing Home Price Hit All-Time High of $440,600 in June
“440,600. I mentioned this before in my state of the market. This is the median existing home in June, and that's an all-time high up 1.8% from a year ago”
Assertion Supported
Morris: Most government loans are assumable, while conventional loans are not
“Most government-backed loans, those are FHA loans, VA loans, USDA loans, many of them Can be assumed by a buyer who qualifies, but most conventional loans cannot because they carry what's known as a due on sale clause, and that just means that the loan has to …”
Assertion Supported
Morris: Q3 2025 New Home Mortgages Averaged 5.25% Versus 6.25% for Existing
“We looked at realtor.com and buyers of brand new homes were averaging just over five and a quarter percent mortgage while buyers of existing homes at that time, again, sort of third quarter, 20, 25 existing homes were averaging about 6.25%. It's basically a fu…”
Assertion Supported
Morris: US homeowners hold an average of $300,000 in equity
“So when homeowners across the country have an average of about 300,000 dollars of equity, then we know that there is room for people to refinance and take money out of their own home to buy another home or an investment property.”
Assertion Supported
Morris: HELOC originations are up almost 16% year-over-year
“And HELOC, home equity line of credit, originations are up almost 16% year over year.”
Assertion Supported
Morris: Owner-occupant programs allow down payments as low as 3.5%
“There are programs now where you can put in as little as three and a half percent. I didn't. I put about 10% down, but if this were an investment property, I have to put up to 30% down.”
Assertion Supported
Morris: Fed Voted 9-3 to Hold Rates With Three Dissents to Hike
“The second number is nine votes to three, and that's the Federal Reserve Board's vote to hold rates exactly where they are, and the three who broke ranks with the nine others, they voted to raise rates, not to cut them.”
Assertion Supported
Morris: Median Home Price Hit Record $440,600 as Pending Sales Fell 5.4%
“The third number is 440,600. That number is important because it is the median price of a home Sold in June, and according to the National Association of Realtors, that is an all-time record. All while pending sales, and that's the number of houses going under…”
Assertion Supported
Morris: Section 280A allows homeowners 14 tax-free rental days per year
“The rule is referred to as the fourteen-day rule. It's sectioned, two-eighty-A of the federal tax code. You can use your home with all the tax breaks associated with home ownership And you can rent it out free of federal taxes if you rent it for fewer than 15 …”
Assertion Supported
Morris: 5- and 15-Year Property Items Qualify for 100% Bonus Depreciation
“The building itself deducts very slowly, and that's over 27 and a half years. The idea is that's how long it would take for the building to wear out. But the parts, appliances, and flooring normally on a five-year depreciation schedule, fencing and landscaping…”
Assertion Supported
Morris: Rental losses only offset wage income through three specific tax exemptions
“The tax code walls rental losses off as passive Losses, and they generally need to be written off against passive income. There are three doors through that wall worth knowing exist, and a limited allowance for hands-on landlords under certain income levels, f…”
Assertion Supported
Morris: California, New York, and New Jersey decouple from federal bonus depreciation
“And in California, along with New York and New Jersey, they don't follow the federal rule, so that's a federal tax benefit only, which is significant, but you'll still have to pay state taxes in those particular states.”
Assertion Supported
Morris: Fed held rates steady as mortgage rates reached 6.66% high
“The federal reserve met this past Wednesday and there was no cut. In fact, three officials voted to raise rates and mortgage rates hit a one year high anyway. And that was 6.66%. According to Freddie Mac”
Assertion Supported
Morris: June closed sales fell 2.4% and pending sales dropped 5.4%
“Closed sales dipped 2.4% in June. Pending sales, the deals that become August closings dropped 5.4%”
Assertion Supported
Morris: Distressed real estate sales accounted for only 2% in June
“Distress sales in June were two percent. I repeat, two percent.”
Assertion Supported
Morris: June CPI Cooled to 3.5% on Largest Gas Price Drop Since 2020
“June's consumer price index cooled to 3.5% because gas prices fell nearly 10% in June, the biggest monthly drop since 2020.”
Assertion Supported
Morris: US home sales rose only in Northeast, falling across other regions
“Month over month, sales rose only in the Northeast, being up by just over two percent, while the South fell just over, it fell just over three and a half percent. The Midwest fell about three percent, and On the west, it fell just over one percent.”
Assertion Supported
Morris: Hartford, Connecticut ranked number one on Realtor.com's hottest markets report
“Hartford, Connecticut holds the number one spot, and that is a supply-starved northeast market Where the real estate standoff we just headlined doesn't even really exist.”
Assertion Supported
Morris: US Existing Home Sales Rose 3.2% in May to 4.17M Pace
“So, existing home sales have risen again, 3.2% in May, to an annual pace of 4.17 million homes.
That's the highest level since December.
And that is a report that was issued June ninth by the National Association of Realtors.”
Assertion Supported
Morris: US Median Home Price Hit ~$430K in May, 35th Straight Monthly Gain
“The national median existing home price hit about 430,000 dollars in May, a record for the month up 1.3% from a year ago, and
Amazingly, it's the 35th straight month of annual price gains.”
Assertion Supported
Morris: US housing market has 4.5 months of supply
“We're sitting on four and a half months of supply.”
Assertion Supported
Morris: Housing affordability index rose to 105.6 from 97.5
“And the affordability index came in at one oh 5.6 up from 97.5 a year ago.”
Assertion Supported
Morris: First-time homebuyers hit 35% share, highest since June 2020
“First time home buyers were 35% of the market. The highest share since June, 20 20.”
Assertion Supported
NAR reports existing US home sales rose 3.2% in May
“The National Association of Realtors reported on June ninth, existing home sales rose 3.2% in May, that's month over month, and also 3.2% year over year, to an annual pace of 4.17 million homes. That's the highest level since December.”
Assertion Supported
Morris: Multifamily construction starts have dropped 70% from their peak
“New multifamily construction starts are down 70% from their peak. One of the lowest levels in multifamily starts since 2013.”
Assertion Supported
Mike Lazerow Sold Golf.com for $25 Million
“We sold it for twenty-five million dollars, which at the time were like, That's just a boatload of cash.”
Assertion Supported
Morris: US gas prices surged over 30% from $2.81 to $3.88
“The national average just under three months ago was two dollars and 81 cents per gallon, and now it's all the way up to three dollars and 88 cents per gallon.
That's really a huge increase of over 30%
In terms of the cost of gasoline going up.”
Assertion Supported
Morris: Federal Reserve raised 2026 inflation forecast to 2.7%
“The Fed's new inflation forecast is at 2.7% for 2026, up from their December estimate of 2.4.”
Assertion Supported
Morris: Mortgage rates dropped below 6% pre-war for first time since 2022
“Two weeks before the war, mortgage rates dip below six percent for the first time since 2022.”