The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 259 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 7 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Morris: US Lacks Broad Guardrails Against Foreign Real Estate Ownership
“The narrow restrictions are only around military bases where, where it could be potentially sensitive for national security, but there is no ban and no regulation in terms of keeping Americans wealth in real estate in America and keeping the ownership of real …”
Paul Morris: Insider Trading Is Entirely Legal in Real Estate
“You can absolutely trade on insider information in real estate.”
Morris: Has Invested in Real Estate for 30 Years Without Losing Money
“I've invested in real estate for 30 years. I've never lost money on a deal.”
Kahlo: Ground-up real estate developments deliver at least 70% annualized returns
“Cash on cash, they are at least in the 70% annualized cash on cash. On a development deal, ground up construction, at least 70% on your money. But a hundred percent, doubling your money, a hundred percent return is not unheard of. There is a lot of projects ou…”
Kahlo: Broad stock market returns are much lower than the S&P 500
“So if you want to compare it fairly, look at the stock market as a whole. Maybe take up, you know, pin sheets and all that stuff that, that are listed on the NASDAQ, S&P, and everything, and then compare it to a real estate market. I guarantee that to you that…”
Morris: 91% of active stock fund managers underperform over 20 years
“And the real numbers are that over a 20 year, over a 20 year period of time, including the biggest funds and the ones that have really professional stock pickers, active investors over a 21 year, over a 20 year period, 91% underperformed.”
Kahlo: Rental property yields are definitely higher than stock dividends
“There is no way that If you look at the percentages, what you're collecting on your rent, what your rental income is, and if you measure it against the money that you put out, the percentage of dividend, if you want to call it, you're getting from a rental is …”
Morris: Professional developers will rebuild in Pacific Palisades in 18 months
“The pros are going to go in and they're going to build in 18 months easy.”
Scordo: Palm Springs seeks to cut vacation rental caps to 26 annually
“They're actually trying to lower the number of contracts you can have a year to 26 for even the people who are grandfathered in. It's a long, so, but I don't even hit, right now we're at 36”
Stepp: Lenders Cap Commercial Real Estate Leverage at 50%
“Nobody's getting more than 50% loan. On anything. Underwriting.”
David Bailey says Bird Streets luxury developers now lose $5M-$7M per house
“The metrics on those homes were that the developers were generally making between five and seven million a house, and now the entire opposite is true. They're losing between five and seven million a house.”
Morris secured his deeply discounted luxury home on the open market.
“That's the myth. Because I did not buy the house. It was not off market. It was on the market.”
O'Neill: California SB 1123 permits 10 homes by-right on R-1 parcels
“Our SB-Eleven-Twenty-Three which allows for 10 homes even on an R-One site or other multi-family sites. By right, ministerial. Ministerial means you don't have to go through any planning you don't have to go through any political type of process. You don't hav…”
Sani: Government funding for Section 8 in California won't dry up
“The city, the state is going to continue to receive this funding from the government, if not from the local, but from the federal, they're always going back and forth with it. What are you going to do? So I don't see the money drying up necessarily.”
Morris: Real estate returns matched the stock market's recent massive run
“I definitely missed a great run, for sure. I know I did just as well with my real estate investments in my self-directed IRA.”
Morris says immediately cash-flowing value-add properties do not exist in LA
“You're not going to find a value add property. And that's my third rule is value add. We'll get to that next, but you're not going to find, you're not going to find a value added property. That's going to cashflow in Los Angeles period.”
Morris: Austin home values dropped 20% while Hartford rose 20%
“Since the peak of the market, Austin is down more than 20%, and Hartford, Connecticut is up more than 20%.”
Lane: Most markets permit short-term rentals via standardized registration
“Most markets though have moved to this a permitting process where short term rentals are allowed. You just need to get a permit. You need to tell them where it's going to be located and who to call if there's a problem.”
Lane: Dynamic pricing tools boost short-term rental revenue by 20%
“So the average listing generates 20% more revenue when they're using dynamic pricing tools than when they're not.”
Go: Active co-development project will exit at $20 million
“The one that I'm actively working right now is going to have an exit of twenty million.”
Go: No client has ever lost money on properties she sold
“I have never had a client lose money. They've always made money on anything I've ever sold them. Most of them, a lot of money. Like, my clients have made on single family spec for sure hundreds of millions of dollars, right?”
Morris: Businesses can deduct reasonable rent for meetings at owner homes
“In the right entity structure, a business may be able to deduct reasonable rent for a genuine business meeting held at your home. And for, that could be, for example, the annual planning session, the board meeting, or even holiday party, while you The homeowne…”
Morris: An LLC does not save federal income tax by itself
“So here's what an LLC does not do. It does not save you federal income tax by itself. People think that and they'll say, well, you know, I could write off more if it were an LLC. I don't believe that to be true. If you could write it off because it's a true bu…”
Morris: Mortgage rates will not drop to 5.75% in the near future
“That's a lot of people betting their plans on a number that nobody controls, and it's one that I don't see coming in the very near future.”
Morris: Fewer Than 2% of US Mortgaged Homes Are Underwater
“Today, according to Cotality, which is the housing data firm, firmly known as CoreLogic, fewer than two out of every 100 homes with a mortgage owe more than the house is worth.”
Morris: Futures market prices 70% odds of a September Fed hike
“The futures market currently puts it at roughly a seven in 10 odds on a quarter point hike By September. Not a cut. A hike.”
Morris: Mortgage quotes will embed risk premiums until Strait of Hormuz settles
“And the bottom line is until the Strait of Hormuz is genuinely settled, That risk premium, the premium of this uncertainty will live inside every rate you're quoted.”
Morris: Real estate sellers prefer negotiating terms over cutting prices
“Right now, Sellers are more often willing to negotiate terms than they are to cut price. That's my experience. And I think the market is showing that”
Morris: Less than 2% of US homes are underwater on mortgages
“According to CoreLogic, less than two percent of homes in the United States are underwater, and contrast that with a financial crisis when the bottom really fell out of this market in 2009, and that was a massive 26%”
Morris: Futures Market Priced One-in-Three Odds of Fed Rate Hike
“Last week, futures market put the odds at one in three of a quarter point hike.”
Morris: Only 2% of Mortgaged US Homes Are Underwater Today
“In the last real crash, 2008, 2009, 26% of homes with a mortgage were underwater. Today, only about two percent.”
Morris: US Homeowners Hold $34 Trillion in Equity With $300,000 Average Cushion
“American homeowners are also sitting on roughly 34 trillion dollars of equity in their homes. And per CoreLogic homeowners with a mortgage hold nearly eighteen million of that equity. Five times what they had 15 years ago, and the average homeowner is sitting …”
Morris: Fed Stance on Energy Spikes Will Dictate Near-Term Mortgage Rates
“Did the Fed treat the oil spike and gasoline cost spike as temporary or as a real threat? That answer will set the direction of mortgage rates for the near future.”
Owen: One In Five Contacted Sellers Open To Direct Off-Market Offers
“Out of sellers that we talked to about a potential offer in their home, one out of five might be open to a direct offer versus going on the market.”
Owen: LA County ADUs Cost ~$200/Sq Ft And Rent For $2,400 Monthly
“We could build ADU units for 202 120 square foot, even in LA County. And I could rent these for a minimum, 10% of that. Right. So like if you're, you know, a thousand square foot ADU or junior ADU might cost me a 180 to 220,000 to build, but I can easily get 2…”
Morris: Mortgage rates will stay in the mid-sixes through summer 2026
“Build your numbers assuming rates stay in the mid-sixes
Through the summer.”
Morris: Fed will hold rates steady rather than cut soon
“Less inflation pressure means less reason for the fed to stay aggressive, which over time is friendly to mortgage rates. So It's, what's happening is that the inflationary pressure is not forcing the Fed to increase rates, but we're probably not at a point whe…”
Morris: Institutional buyers own over 20% of Atlanta housing stock
“In Atlanta, it was upwards of 20% or more of the whole housing stock was owned by institutional buyers.”
Morris: 77 of 300 Largest US Metros Show Price Declines
“77 out of the 300 largest metros are posting year over year price declines. And they are concentrated in the Sun Belt.”
Morris: Austin Home Prices Dropped Over 20% From Peak
“Austin's down more than 20% off of its peak in 2022.”
Morris: Rochester Homes Sell in 11 Days Versus 105 in Asheville
“The typical home in Rochester, New York goes under contract in about 11 days. So you list the typical house in Rochester, 11 days later it's sold. In Asheville, North Carolina, You list the average house, and it sells in about a 105 days.”
Morris: Sun Belt housing inventory is above pre-pandemic levels
“So if you're a value buyer, point your search at the softening Sunbelt metros where inventory is above pre-pandemic levels and builders are cutting deals.”
US median existing home price hit $429K, rising for 35 straight months
“The median existing home price came in at 429,000 dollars, and that's up 1.3% from a year ago. That's the 35th consecutive month of year over year price increases. That is 35 straight months that prices have gone up.”
First-time buyers reached 35% of May sales as affordability index rose to 105.6
“First-time buyers were 35% of May sales, and NARS affordability index is at One oh 5.6. That's up from 97.5 a year ago”
Morris: Austin, Tampa, Miami, Orlando, and Dallas Led 2026 Price Drops
“And the five markets that took the hit the most in 20, 26 so far are Tampa, Austin, Austin leading the pack, Tampa, Miami, Orlando, and Dallas. Those are the five markets that have decelerated the most, that prices have gone down the most.”
Morris: Buyers Have Negotiating Room for First Time Since Pre-Pandemic
“You finally now have selection and negotiating room in most markets, something buyers haven't had since before the pandemic. Right now, sellers are negotiating. Credits, meaning you can ask for money back once you're in escrow. Credits are back. Contingencies,…”
Morris: Waiting to Buy Costs $4,000 Annual Equity at 1% Appreciation
“35 straight months of rising prices means that waiting has a cost. Every year you wait, even at a one percent appreciation rate on the average median home, which is about 430,000 dollars, you're giving up 4000 dollars in equity plus a year of principal pay dow…”