why aren't all 12 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Smith: Over 90% of ChatGPT users still use Google
“Similar web I have data showing that the overlap Basically everyone who uses ChatGPT uses Google. Nearly all of them. I think it's like 90, 90% plus or something. So people are not using it instead of search.”
Assertion Supported
Smith: TechRadar Is Among Most Cited LLM Domains Despite Affiliate Disclosures
“TechRadar is a good example. TechRadar shows up A huge amount. It's one of the most cited domains in LMs. And you'll see a snippet at the top saying we're an affiliate site and it does really well. There's no evidence that a paid for mention does worse than a …”
Assertion Supported
Smith: Half of newly published internet content is AI-generated
“We just posted an original piece of original research showing that half of the content published on the internet is generated by AI.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Ethan Smith: 8% of Webflow's signups come from LLMs
“Eight percent of their signups come from LMs.”
Assertion Supported
Smith: The llms.txt protocol does not work
“So the intention of LMS.txt is to get more traffic and to send information about, it's not to block, it's to send more information to the LMS so that you get more traffic, but it doesn't work.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Smith: Most Webflow LLM signups came from existing SEO work
“So I would say most of the signups from LMS were from SEO work that we had already done or we're doing.”
Assertion Supported
Ethan Smith: LLMs frequently cite YouTube, TikTok, and LinkedIn, but rarely X
“It generally, so LMs, the classes of domain types of domains that are cited frequently, video and UGC are huge.
Instagram, TikTok, LinkedIn, I am not seeing X that much.
And then video and YouTube shows up a lot.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Ethan Smith: LLM video citations require only hundreds of views, not millions
“What I will say is that for many questions, the number of views is not millions or hundreds of thousands, it's hundreds or a few thousands.
So it's still pretty, it's still something that you could win without being an influencer.”
Assertion Supported
Smith: Search volume is 5x to 10x larger than LLMs
“I think it's five X, at least five X LMs, maybe 10 X, depending on the category. So it's way bigger than AEO.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2030
Smith: ChatGPT Will Eventually Offer Prompt Search Volume Data Through Ads
“I don't anticipate they'll do that soon. I think that they'll eventually do that as they build out ads, but they don't give you that information.”
Prediction Held up
Smith: ClearScope will launch the first AI content optimization tool
“I believe by the time this podcast gets published, ClearScope will show the first optimization tool.”
Assertion Supported
Smith: Chat prompts average 25 words versus 3 to 6 for search
“The average, I think the stat roughly was average of 25 words per prompt and average of three to six for search, something along those lines. So chat is significantly more specific.”