The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 4 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Kolter no longer writes code manually, relying entirely on AI agents
“I don't write code anymore. I do all my work now, and I do lots of, you know, I still do some research, right? It's entirely telling Codex what to do.”
OpenAI's Safety Committee has authority to delay model releases
“In the case essentially where we have more questions, we can delay model release if we feel that we need to understand that, that better.”
Kolter: Calculating a P(doom) for AI is a flawed concept
“I have never expressed a P. Doom and things like this. I just think it's a very weird concept as if the world is some stochastic set of dice that you can roll multiple times and that we don't have direct influence over this.”
Kolter tried recruiting Schulman and Karpathy to CMU before OpenAI launched
“I was trying to get both John Schulman and Andre Karpathy to apply for faculty jobs at CMU, and I was trying to understand where they were, if they were going to apply, what they're going to be like, and they said, no, I think I'm going to be doing this startu…”