why aren't all 14 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Stanislas Polu: If transformative AI arrives in 5 to 10 years, OpenAI will likely build it
“But if it takes five years or 10 years, then that's probably where it's gonna happen.”
Insight
Polu: A single all-knowing enterprise AI assistant is currently far-fetched
“Context size and model quality makes it such that an assistant that knows it all within a company is, is, is, is still kind of a bit farfetched because it'll get confused if it sees too much information.”
Insight
Polu: Building a strong AI research team is 10x easier in Paris than SF
“If you want to build a strong AI research team today, it'll be 10 times easier to do it in Paris than it is to do it in SF with OpenAI as a lab, as a competitive lab to, in the same hiring markets.”
Insight
Polu: Compute allocation naturally aligns AI researchers with company goals
“There is a way to Orion's an organization, a research organizations, the way you allocate computes. Which means that as a researcher, it's often the case that you are free to work on whatever the things you want to work on. Right. But if the things you're work…”
Insight
Polu: Onboarding enterprise users to AI requires constrained tools, not general assistants
“For a large amount of the people within companies, The best way to onboard them the technology is to not give them a very general assistant that can do anything and everything, but instead focus the assistant to some use case that feels more like a tool.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Polu: Enterprise AI adoption will scale via product, not custom services
“I think all of that can probably scale through product and not necessarily handholding and kind of custom work with our clients eventually.”
Insight
Noisy retrieval causes even state-of-the-art LLMs to skip relevant context
“If what you're searching is too large, the answers, the chunk that you'll be finding will be a bit noisy, and the models, even the best ones today, they have a tendency to get a little bit disturbed by that noise, meaning that they might not hallucinate too mu…”
Insight
Polu: Enterprise AI needs frontier models rather than complex query routing
“Most of the tasks are pretty general, right? Most of the tasks are pretty like a human would do. And so you just want the best models. And as it happens today, the best models are before enclosed. So that's what you want.”
Disclosure
Polu: Dust is near repeatable sales but has not reached PMF yet
“I think we are in the, we are on the precipice of repeated sales processes. So that could call PMF. I wouldn't quite qualify it as PMF yet.”
Assertion Supported
Mistral and Poolside funding is a trickle compared to OpenAI, says Polu
“It's already awesome that Mistral was able to raise that much, that Toolside is able to raise that much, but it's a trickle compared to what Open Air is raising, compared to what Anthropik is raising.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Polu: Stripe had no product managers when it reached 80 employees
“When we joined at People. There were very limited number of managers, very limited number of product manager. I think it was a forbidden word at the time. So no product manager that, that function was kind of covered by engineers and managers or engine manager…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Polu: AI model costs will fall, making heavy token usage profitable
“Because the cost will go down. So that's fine. Even if you're losing money today, you'll be winning some, I mean, earning some money tomorrow.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Polu: OpenAI combined research and engineering early with fluid career ladders
“I think I saw the transition from research to research plus engineering being the ingredients into building the largest and best models. But even very early on OpenAI was very open on the fact that you could be one or the other Quite fluidly and changed betwee…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Stanislas Polu's startup was Stripe's first European customer
“We knew them because we were the first European users.”