why aren't all 21 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Disclosure
Katti: OpenAI on track to spend roughly $50B on compute this year
“Actually, that sounds okay.”
Assertion Partly supported
Katti: Data centers do not net consume new water due to recycling
“It's a misperception that data centers consume a lot of water. It's anything. They consume so little water for what they do. And all of that water is recycled. So we don't net consume new water.”
Disclosure
Katti: OpenAI must build its own compute infrastructure alongside partners
“I think what's becoming clear is to build the kind of compute we need and at this scale we have to not just rely on getting compute from our partners. We increasingly have to take a much more active role in building and getting that compute that we need.”
Disclosure
Katti: OpenAI commits to not taking existing power from local grids
“Whenever we build a data center anywhere, we make it a hard commitment that we are not taking power away from the grid. In fact, we are investing in the grid to generate new power so that we can consume it for data centers.”
Insight
Katti: Modern AI model training consists heavily of inference workloads
“We don't like to make a distinction between Training and infants, because a lot of training is now infants. So when we train a new model, we are generating synthetic data, for example. That's inference. When we train a new model, we are doing post-train, and t…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sachin Katti: OpenAI tripled compute and tripled revenue
“We tripled compute and we tripled revenue.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Katti: Demand far outstrips OpenAI's compute supply, zero goes to waste
“Demand far outstrips. Compute supply today. So anything we can bring online, we consume immediately. So there's no compute that is going to waste for us.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Katti: AI will soon design systems and chips for next-gen AI
“We do believe that the world of Likersh is not that far, where AI will design the systems it needs to train and run the next generation of AI.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sachin Katti: AI tokens will always command a premium due to compute shortages
“So in a world where computers are shortage, therefore, tokens are always going to be at a premium, and there's a shortage of tokens that we can produce, given the limited compute that we have”
Opinion
Katti: AI compute buildout is among largest human projects in history
“It definitely feels like one of the largest things humanity has ever built, effectively.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Inference likely accounts for the majority of OpenAI's total compute
“Inference is a big, perhaps even the majority on compute.”
Disclosure
Katti: OpenAI considers designing and building its own data centers
“As we go forward obviously there'll be building on all of these relationships but also looking at more options where we design the compute, the data center itself, also potentially even build the data center ourselves.”
Prediction Held up
Katti: Skilled labor shortages will become an increasing bottleneck for AI expansion
“No, I think there is definitely a shortage of electricians, plumbers, all kinds of trades, you name it. So anything we can do to train more folks to be able to do those, there are very well-paying jobs that a lot of us, all of the hyperscalers, all of the labs…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Orbital compute will become a component in the AI infrastructure arsenal
“Whether it is needed I think there is room for orbital compute. I don't think it's going to serve all the compute beats, but it's definitely going to be a component in the arsenal.”
Opinion
Katti: Nuclear power is the densest, cleanest energy for AI data centers
“I think it is the densest form of energy we can all produce and consume and it's also clean. So I think definitely would be a good source of massive scalable energy for our data centers.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
OpenAI's Jalapeño chip optimizes tokens produced per watt
“So the key metric that Jalapeno is optimizing is maximizing the number of tokens you can produce per watt.”
Assertion Supported
Katti: OpenAI's Abilene data center is operational and training latest models
“It's up and running. It's being used for training the last two models more actually.”
Assertion Supported
OpenAI taped out its custom Jalapeño chip in just nine months
“Yes, it was incredibly quick. Nine months is very, very fast.”
Assertion Supported
Katti: Many OpenAI chip team members previously designed Google TPUs
“They have, many, many of the team have designed TPU chips at Google in the past.”
Assertion Supported
Katti: Turbine and transformer manufacturers face multi-year lead times to expand capacity
“Those industries have historically have not added much capacity for the last decade or so ago, and they've suddenly experienced a demand shock. And it takes years before you can add capacity to produce more turbines and transformers.”
Assertion Supported
Katti: OpenAI sources compute from all major cloud hyperscalers
“We have compute from, effectively, many sources. So, Microsoft, obviously, is a big partner, important partner. We also have compute, as we have announced, from AWS, Ion Google. So, we have compute from all of the hyperscalers, effectively.”