The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Frontier AI safety coordination requires slowing down China
“And then I think another aspect of this is specifically doing this in a way where part of the story is either slowing down China or cutting a deal with China such that China doesn't overtake and, you know, break this whole proposal.”
AI infrastructure control makes political coups far easier to execute
“If you end up in a system where basically AI's are running anything, if anyone sort of either puts like sort of secret objectives into that AI or has overt control of those AI's, then they could sort of just directly take over.”
Greenblatt: Current AI models can cause harm but cannot yet subvert safety controls
“There may be some intermediate period, an intermediate period that I would say we're currently in, where the AIs are maybe capable enough to cause at least moderate problems, and then I think increasingly able to cause quite large problems, but they're not nec…”
AI models reasoning via activations severely degrades human oversight capability
“Where like an obvious example would be if the AIs are thinking mostly in activations rather than in words, that seems very concerning because our ability to oversee activations is much worse.”
Greenblatt: AI Excels at Verifiable Tasks but Lacks Broad Contextual Judgment
“They seem much better at sort of accomplishing hard results and easy to verify results than they are at sort of contextualizing things, understanding the broader picture, understanding what would be you know, a good or bad choice in the broader context.”
Greenblatt: Safety and cyber safeguards are now launch-blocking bottlenecks for AI labs
“At least from the AI company's perspective, I think it's more the case now that safety and security of various types are sort of a key bottleneck to further AI development, where if you like really want to release some models so that you can then like make mor…”
AI progression has shifted from post-GPT-4 to a coding agent era
“There's sort of a post GPT-IV era, and then there's a more recent, like, post wide adoption of coding agents era, and then probably soon there's going to be, you know, additional eras, and things are going quite a bit faster, and development is going, you know…”