The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 3 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Insight
Knoop: LLM failure rates break unsupervised server-based automation workflows
“You know, it fails randomly two out of 10 times, which might be fine in a supervised setting like ChatGPT. You know, where you're talking with these sort of assistants but it doesn't really work in an automation case where it's hands-off keyboard running on a …”
Mike Knoop Apr 3, 2025 ▶ 33:01 Chasing Real AGI: Inside ARC Prize 2025 with Chollet & Knoop
Insight
Knoop: AI progress remains constrained by fundamental ideas, not compute
“We don't have AGI yet. We don't have the ideas for it yet. We're still our idea constrained even literally today.”
Mike Knoop Apr 3, 2025 ▶ 38:25 Chasing Real AGI: Inside ARC Prize 2025 with Chollet & Knoop
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Knoop: Deep learning has millions of engineers, program synthesis has mere hundreds
“There's maybe a couple of million deep learning engineers now in the world. In contrast, there's probably maybe only a few hundred like really great program synthesis folks across, across the world.”
Mike Knoop Apr 3, 2025 ▶ 59:19 Chasing Real AGI: Inside ARC Prize 2025 with Chollet & Knoop
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