The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 15 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2035
Quantum and optical computing remain 10 to 15 years away from production
“We think that because that's primary research, that, that's a good, ah, 10 to 15 years out, whereas what we looked to do was to take, ah, pre, ah, technology we could manufacture, maybe difficult, but all achievable, so we weren't trying to invent any new law …”
Michael James Feb 20, 2020 ▶ 19:33 Designing an AI Supercomputer // Michael James, Cerebras (FirstMark's Data Driven NYC)
Assertion Contradicted
Cerebras built the first supercomputer designed end-to-end for AI
“And it's also the first supercomputer that has been designed from beginning to end for artificial intelligence and deep learning.”
Michael James Feb 20, 2020 ▶ 0:33 Designing an AI Supercomputer // Michael James, Cerebras (FirstMark's Data Driven NYC)
Assertion Supported
The Cerebras Wafer Scale Engine is the world's largest processor
“This is the world's largest processor.”
Michael James Feb 20, 2020 ▶ 7:13 Designing an AI Supercomputer // Michael James, Cerebras (FirstMark's Data Driven NYC)
Assertion Supported
Cerebras's WSE is the first chip with over 1 trillion transistors
“It is the first part that has over a trillion transistors, and we're here, and at 1.2, and it has 400,000 sparse linear algebra cores on it.”
Michael James Feb 20, 2020 ▶ 7:26 Designing an AI Supercomputer // Michael James, Cerebras (FirstMark's Data Driven NYC)
Assertion Supported
Cerebras's WSE delivers 9 petabytes per second of memory bandwidth
“There's 18 gigabytes of memory right, right on that, ah, on that silicon wafer, and it gives an unprecedented nine gigabytes per second, sorry, nine petabytes per second of memory bandwidth.”
Michael James Feb 20, 2020 ▶ 7:42 Designing an AI Supercomputer // Michael James, Cerebras (FirstMark's Data Driven NYC)
Assertion Supported
Cerebras routes around manufacturing defects across its 400,000 cores
“By having 400,000 independent cores, it's perfectly fine if we have a few hundred defects on there, and it's only our job to route the information flows around those defects.”
Michael James Feb 20, 2020 ▶ 8:53 Designing an AI Supercomputer // Michael James, Cerebras (FirstMark's Data Driven NYC)
Assertion Supported
Cerebras's chip provides 10,000x the memory bandwidth of standard GPUs
“So, having solved this, we were left with a machine that was pretty impressive on most of the metrics, being larger, more cores, 10,000 times the memory bandwidth and 33,000 times the fabric bandwidth.”
Michael James Feb 20, 2020 ▶ 13:10 Designing an AI Supercomputer // Michael James, Cerebras (FirstMark's Data Driven NYC)
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wafer-scale chips were previously presumed impossible to build
“And when we showed this the world got pretty excited, so there was a large press splash, and in part that's because this had been presumed to be impossible to achieve.”
Michael James Feb 20, 2020 ▶ 8:19 Designing an AI Supercomputer // Michael James, Cerebras (FirstMark's Data Driven NYC)
Assertion Supported
Cerebras's first customer was the U.S. National Labs
“It's pretty unusual in Silicon Valley to have your first customer be the U.S. National Labs”
Michael James Feb 20, 2020 ▶ 14:46 Designing an AI Supercomputer // Michael James, Cerebras (FirstMark's Data Driven NYC)
Assertion Supported
No motherboard had ever housed a processor as large as Cerebras's
“No one before had ever put a processor that large in a motherboard, and so we had to also make a system to house this thing.”
Michael James Feb 20, 2020 ▶ 9:19 Designing an AI Supercomputer // Michael James, Cerebras (FirstMark's Data Driven NYC)
Assertion Supported
Cerebras CS-1 system enclosure contains a single wafer plus cooling hardware
“There's only one wafer mounted in there, and the entire rest of this is about, ah, cooling and power delivery.”
Michael James Feb 20, 2020 ▶ 9:39 Designing an AI Supercomputer // Michael James, Cerebras (FirstMark's Data Driven NYC)
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Michael James: Cerebras succeeded at reticle stitching on the first attempt
“Reticle stitching to get above the optical limit of how you manufacture these things that worked the first time we tried it.”
Michael James Feb 20, 2020 ▶ 10:50 Designing an AI Supercomputer // Michael James, Cerebras (FirstMark's Data Driven NYC)
Assertion Supported
Cerebras maps neural network layers across 400,000 chip cores
“We have, ah, an optimization solver that places these over the 400,000 cores.”
Michael James Feb 20, 2020 ▶ 14:21 Designing an AI Supercomputer // Michael James, Cerebras (FirstMark's Data Driven NYC)
Assertion Supported
Lawrence Livermore integrated Cerebras into its Lassen supercomputer
“Lawrence Livermore has integrated into their Lassen supercomputer.”
Michael James Feb 20, 2020 ▶ 15:08 Designing an AI Supercomputer // Michael James, Cerebras (FirstMark's Data Driven NYC)
Assertion Supported
Cerebras' Wafer Scale Engine is fabricated at TSMC
“It is fabricated at Taiwan Semiconductor, which is one of the world's large major fab houses.”
Michael James Feb 20, 2020 ▶ 18:23 Designing an AI Supercomputer // Michael James, Cerebras (FirstMark's Data Driven NYC)
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