why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Soldaini: Most open AI models are open weights, not open source
“Majority of models that get release I think the best term to describe them is open weights. Your Quinn, your Gemma, your Lama you know, Kimi it's what gets release is a set of weights that correspond either to the final state of model, that's the most common, …”
Insight
Soldaini: AI scaffolding allows people outside frontier labs to drive capabilities
“If the scaffolding is what really moves a lot of like from, you know, broad capability model to like something that actually has meaningful impact, that scaffolding is not just like, oh, only the labs of people are trained models can do it. Like the number of …”
Disclosure
Ai2 releases OLMo 3 with full training recipes, data, and intermediate checkpoints
“We're not just releasing the final models. We're releasing, you know, the entire recipe we followed to get this model. So the data, the intermediate states, the evaluation frameworks, all the details, all the bits that people need to know to make models like O…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Soldaini: Frontier AI labs limit final pre-training runs to two months
“I think it's standard practice among the frontier labs to try to cap your big final pre-training run to two months not more than that.”
Insight
Soldaini: Flawed long-context model architecture cannot be saved by good data
“But they're like technical decisions in how you set up your model that you can have the best data in the world. And your model will not be able to reason over many, many tokens. So it doesn't matter in the sense that you can't train the model on bad data, but …”
Disclosure
Ai2 samples 6T tokens from 10T pool for OLMo 3
“There's like a pool of about 10 trillion tokens from which we have like an algorithm also fully open source. To like sample about six trillion tokens that we use during training.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Soldaini: 95% of web pages are under 3,000 tokens
“Like 95% web pages are below 3000 tokens.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Nov 2028
Ai2 received an initial grant of two million GPU hours from AMD
“We got an initial grant from AMD at the time. There was about two million GPU hours.”
Disclosure
Ai2 filtered OLMo 3's pre-training dataset from 300 trillion tokens
“Our initial pool was closer to 300 trillion tokens. You shrink it down till you reach your target number, and hopefully as you shrink, you only keep the best part of this.”
Insight
Soldaini: Mid-training requires re-mixing pre-training data to avoid model forgetting
“When you do that, you also need to make sure that The model doesn't forget stuff that I've seen during pre-training, so that's why, like, you mix some of the best data from pre-training, you do carry over.”
Assertion Supported
Soldaini: Training LLMs on longer sequences causes quadratic compute slowdown
“It's because the longer the input that a model is trained on, the slower it is. The rate at which it gets slower, it's higher than the length of a context. It's a quadratic slowdown.”