why aren't all 15 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lin Qiao predicts a 10x AI cost reduction yields 100x more applications
“If this bar can be lowered by 10 times, you can imagine there's so many more, it will be hundred times more applications enter the, this arena to create a brand new experience to end consumers and prosumers. And by that, we'll see a much bigger consumption acr…”
Insight
For AI applications, moats lie in curated data rather than user experience
“Their mode is probably not the user experience, but because it's very easy to copy. Anyone can study the product and copy. Their mode is data.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lin Qiao: The future of AI modeling belongs to open-source models
“The future of the future of modeling sits on open model side. And I believe that side is gonna be much more active in creating those hundreds or maybe thousands of expert models that is specialized delivering much better quality in certain domain.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
DeepSeek runs each single model replica across more than 300 GPUs
“DeepSeq actually that company itself was running and still running this model over more than 300 GPUs. So think about this deployment. One replica is 300 GPUs, and there are so many different, so many more replicas.”
Insight
Lin Qiao: AI frameworks must reconcile researcher flexibility with strict production cost and latency constraints
“For researchers, you want the flexibility. You want ease of use. You want them to just think about what's possible, right? And for production, it's a constraint problem solving. As in, you have latency budget, you have cost budget you want to scale, you want t…”
Insight
Lin Qiao: PyTorch's primary success lesson is that simplicity scales
“I think one of the biggest success we saw from the PyTorch experience is simplicity scales.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Fireworks AI improved speculative execution hit rates from 30% to 90%
“We have seen cases improving the prediction hit from 30% to 90%, and that's huge speed.”
Assertion Contradicted
Fireworks AI was first to enable function calling for DeepSeek models
“We have been working on function for calling for a long time, and we are the first one to enable function calling for deep seek models.”
Assertion Supported
Over 500 DeepSeek model variants hit Hugging Face within a month
“DeepSeq for example, just within one month of releasing their new models, There are, despite DeepSeq model, extremely hard to tune and optimize, extremely hard. There are 500, more than 500 variants published on Hugging Face, optimizing for local device, optim…”
Assertion Supported
Meta historically maintained three separate AI frameworks for mobile, research, and production
“Even within Mata, there are three different flavors. One for mobile, one for research, one for production.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Meta spent five years rebuilding PyTorch's backend for internal scale
“It took us five years. Took us five years to get the stage supporting almost all internal needs using deep learning and mass and massive scale.”
Assertion Supported
Lin Qiao: OpenAI switched completely from TensorFlow to PyTorch
“OpenAI switched to use PyTorch fully.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lin Qiao: Meta had hundreds of engineers building PyTorch and its infrastructure
“We have hundreds of engineers building PyTorch and infrastructure around PyTorch, but at the same time, I believe PyTorch within Meta probably has thousands of users.”
Insight
LLM prompt processing is compute-bound; next-token generation is memory-bound
“Prompt processing is bottlenecked by computation, and generating next, predicting next token is bottlenecked by memory bandwidth.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lin Qiao: Fireworks AI's optimization space has over 80,000 options
“And all these different options add up together, it can lead into more than 80,000 possible, possible way to optimize.”