why aren't all 15 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Joe Lubin says Ethereum is orders of magnitude ahead of Cardano
“There, there's just I think several orders of magnitude at this point between Ethereum and let's say a project like Cardano, or R-Chain, or DFINITY, or Zilliqa, or others.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lubin: Layer one blockchain scalability will happen within two years
“We have the trust layer working pretty well, and we need at layer one, that trust layer, we need greater scalability, and that's going to happen over the next year or two.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Joe Lubin predicts a reckoning for crypto projects that sold illegal securities
“There's also, I think, gonna be even more of a reckoning coming where certain projects obviously sold securities and sold them contrary to securities law.”
Insight
Joe Lubin: Aggressive marketing and discounts turn tokens into securities
“If you market it in enormous quantities to speculator types, and you give them big discounts, you put billboards in Times Square, leading people to believe that there is a group that they're relying on for a return of investment, that's going to be considered …”
Insight
Lubin: Self-sovereign identity on blockchains cannot be confiscated by states
“And in that context, we own our route. Nobody can take that away from us. We can be forced out of our country with no possessions, and we can reestablish that in another country when we get back on our feet.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lubin: AI competition will expand to far more actors using decentralized data
“Much better information is available to a much broader audience, so there's still gonna be a crazy arms race, but it's gonna be far more actors in that race.”
Prediction Held up
Lubin: Tech will soon allow querying data while keeping it encrypted
“In many cases very soon we're gonna be able to have data that remains encrypted at all times, yet we'll still be able to ask questions of that encrypted data”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Joe Lubin: Hundreds of thousands of people earn a living working on Ethereum
“Ethereum does have hundreds of thousands of people who are during the day paying all of their attention to Ethereum, making a living doing that sort of work.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Joe Lubin: ConsenSys processes about 10 billion queries per day for Ethereum
“We process about ten billion queries per day from the public Ethereum ecosystem.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lubin: Traditional music intermediaries capture 70% of value in the ecosystem
“The one thing that's missing is that, that big intermediary in the middle, ah, that is sucking up 70% of the value in the ecosystem.”
Assertion Supported
Lubin: Decentralized layer one blockchains process only 20 TPS
“We've kind of thrown away all that scalability and replaced it with this system that can only do 20 transactions per second but you can trust that that system can't be cheated because it's radically decentralized.”
Assertion Supported
Joe Lubin: SEC declared Bitcoin and Ether as non-securities
“Bill Hinman, director of corporate finance at the SEC after he, after they declared Bitcoin sufficiently decentralized so that it's not a security and put Ether in that category as well the token on Ethereum.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lubin: DApps will eventually run across multiple blockchains and protocols
“It is likely that many of those things will sit on multiple blockchains over time, and certainly multiple decentralized protocols, because we'll need protocols for decentralized storage and bandwidth and many other elements.”
Insight
Lubin: Acquiring users and UI/UX is 90% of building crypto apps
“When you build an application, 90% of the work is working with customers, et cetera so if you need to move it to multiple blockchain systems that's not a big lift. I mean, it's a significant lift, but just acquiring customers and figuring out user experience, …”
Disclosure
Lubin: ConsenSys takes equity stakes ranging from 5% to over 50%
“So with respect to equity, it ranges from sometimes a little more than 50% to, you know, five percent in an accelerator, accelerator-like context.”