The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 2 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tworek: Traditional human data labeling is becoming obsolete as models advance
“I think, like, in a way, I think it's getting more and more to be a thing of the past as the models are getting smarter and smarter. This is becoming less of a thing, but I think a few years back, and especially in GPT-IV days, this was the thing.”
Jerry Tworek Oct 16, 2025 ▶ 47:16 How GPT-5 Thinks — OpenAI VP of Research Jerry Tworek
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tworek: Pre-training and RL are necessary for AGI, but not sufficient
“I generally think something that we are doing, like, pre-training today is necessary. I think something that, like, we are doing RL today is necessary, and there will surely be a few things more, and like, we have a lot of, Very ambitious research programs on …”
Jerry Tworek Oct 16, 2025 ▶ 1:09:58 How GPT-5 Thinks — OpenAI VP of Research Jerry Tworek
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