why aren't all 12 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mann: Output verification will be the primary blocker for enterprise LLM deployments
“I think that's gonna be one of these evergreen problems, ah, for LLMs, and we're gonna, you know, keep trying to chew on that, ah, for a while, but that's gonna be the big blocker of a lot of the further deployments.”
Assertion Partly supported
Mann: GitHub Copilot saves developers about 40 percent time on new code
“They've done some studies, and it's, they, studies suggest that it saves about 40% for new code for developers to write new code.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mann: Every software application user interface will eventually integrate an LLM
“You can imagine that every point of interface with software application, there's gonna be a point to have a large language Model in that point of interface, and I think all of those will be interesting and useful”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mann: Human intelligence is overrated, making the path to AGI more plausible
“I kind of think human intelligence is a little bit overrated. So I think I'm a little more bullish on AGI. Someone wrote, you know the large, I think it was Ilya Sutskever, you know, maybe the largest models are slightly conscious. I'm not sure I disagree. So …”
Insight
Mann: AI breakthroughs are an overnight success seven years in the making
“It, for me it feels like an overnight success, seven years in the making.”
Insight
Mann: Open source culture in academic machine learning accelerated AI innovation
“The academic machine learning community happened to be one that shared quite a bit. And so companies like Hugging Face and, you know, Google's Colab, you know, enabled sharing of code sharing of technology, and this just really increased the pace of innovation”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Mann: GPT-3 was vastly better than decades of prior NLP systems
“Two years ago, I remember being shocked at GPT-III when it was released, because it was just so, I'm an old NLP guy, and it was so vastly better than anything that, that we could build for decades.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mann: LLMs will outperform decades of prior enterprise search techniques
“When I look at the, you know, all of the LLM technology, large language model technology, it seems like it will get closer than any of the things that, that, you know, the field has been doing for the past few decades.”
Assertion Contradicted
Mann: GitHub Copilot is likely the most widely deployed LLM application
“So far the most widely deployed application of the large language models is probably Copilot.”
Insight
Mann: Unoptimized model pipelines mean AI development is still in early stages
“I think we're still early. I think On, on, on, for two reasons. I think one is, ah, the, you know, to Melanie's point, the amount of tuning and optimization across the entire pipeline is, is really premature.”
Assertion Contradicted
NYC used building water flow rates to detect illegal overcrowding
“They did things like figure out what buildings to inspect which might be overcrowding by looking at max mix-ups between the stated building occupancy rates and the water flow rates.”
Disclosure
Bloomberg's emerging model: selling data feeds to machines, not just humans
“We also sell this as a data feed which is an interesting kind of emerging model for our business is how do we provide data not just to people but also to machines.”