The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 3 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Marcus predicts AI developers will increasingly adopt hybrid models in secret
“I suspect that what will actually happen is that people will start to incorporate hybrid models and not call them that.”
Gary Marcus Sep 17, 2019 ▶ 35:15 Rebooting AI // Gary Marcus, Robust AI (FirstMark's Data Driven NYC)
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Marcus: AI progress will be gradual, not a sudden explosion
“I don't think there's going to be like one special day with this big explosion. They're going to get better and better. It's going to take a while.”
Gary Marcus Jan 25, 2016 ▶ 18:55 Can A.I. Become More Human? // Gary Marcus, Geometric Intelligence (Hosted by FirstMark Capital)
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Marcus predicts deeply neurally inspired AI models are 50 years away
“50 years from now, we will know how to build really deeply neurally inspired models, but right now we have to settle for cognitive science, for psychology, linguistics, fields like that, where we can actually get some insight now before we unravel the brain.”
Gary Marcus Sep 17, 2019 ▶ 33:03 Rebooting AI // Gary Marcus, Robust AI (FirstMark's Data Driven NYC)
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