The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 2 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chollet: Commercial AI models will increasingly adopt test-time search architectures
“Increasingly, you're gonna see commercial models that use test-time search, where instead of just trying to generate one single COT to adapt to the task, they're actually gonna run through this, you know, search.”
Francois Chollet Apr 3, 2025 ▶ 9:47 Chasing Real AGI: Inside ARC Prize 2025 with Chollet & Knoop
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chollet: NDEA will solve problems previously unsolved by humans in verifiable domains
“The kind of technology we're building on, it's differential advantage that it's going to be capable of solving problems that have never been solved by humans before. That's, you know, that's a very different deal than LLMs, for instance, but effectively only i…”
Francois Chollet Apr 3, 2025 ▶ 56:57 Chasing Real AGI: Inside ARC Prize 2025 with Chollet & Knoop
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