The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 16 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Eiso Kant: AI intelligence is going to become a commodity
“I would actually go as far as saying that intelligence is going to become a commodity.”
Kant: Most vertical software and agents will disappear when AGI arrives
“A whole bunch of vertical software or vertical agents are probably gone.”
Eiso Kant: AI will recycle world data into synthetic data within years
“And so this is kind of our view and our, if you extend this a couple of years out, and this is where some people will probably have objection with us. We think that this will go so far. That we will kind of recycle all of the world's real data into higher qual…”
Kant: AI is on track to rewrite $29T of global knowledge work
“I don't think anyone has any doubts anymore that we're now on track to reach human level capabilities and intelligence. And in that world, 29 trillion dollars of knowledge work rewrites itself, right?”
Kant: AI foundation model gross margins will settle near 40%
“I'm not yet convinced that gross margins in our industry will look like a SaaS company, like 80% plus. I think when we're talking about a commodity as intelligence, that we build value added services on top. Right. It's a foundation model company. On one hand,…”
Kant: RL2L will enable model reasoning much earlier in training
“We think we'll push models to a level of reasoning and thought That will happen far earlier in their training than it does today.”
Kant: AI training will evolve into continuous learning from real-world agent experiences
“And then the fourth stage of training over time increasingly will become learning, continuous learning from real world experiences of these agents. And so those are kind of the four stages that we think training will go to.”
Kant: External software and agent frameworks will collapse into base models
“But we have a phrase at poolside, which is over time, everything collapses into the models.”
Kant: AI models will equal top human knowledge workers within 36 months
“I think we have a hard time holding the point of view that models will reach the same level of intelligence and capabilities that the world's most capable people in every field have. And when you take a step back, and don't take the next 12 month view, but jus…”
Kant: Neural networks will learn human-level capabilities in our lifetime
“That it's very like that in our lifetime, neural networks will become capable of learning anything and everything that we are capable of as humans.”
Kant: Most developers will adopt AI pair programmers within two years
“Well, the first thing that I think is at this point, almost uncontested, but frankly, when I was building source, most people didn't think would happen is the fact that the majority, if not all developers in the next couple of years in the world will adopt som…”
Kant: Non-engineers will build software via AI prompts within three years
“We don't think we're more than three years out to that point where a non-engineer, someone with no coding, you know, software development background is able to come and give one of those high level vague things of what they want built, right? Cause that's what…”
Kant: Frontier AI won't be winner-take-all, but limited to few labs
“I don't think it's a winner takes all market, but it does seem to be that it's a small number of companies who are able to get there.”
Kant: Poolside first compute online late 2025, 250MW by Q1 2027
“So at the beginning of Q four, end of Q three, so next year, we've got the first compute coming online. And then we're finalizing in Q one, 20, 27, the first you know, 250 megawatts, but already next summer, the next 250 megawatts starts construction. It's a s…”
Kant: Expert RL will lift enterprise agent quality to 90% in years
“And I think what we'll see in the next couple of years is a lot of model companies ourselves as well. We go into these enterprises. We find high value use cases. We use our agents to get to 60 or 70% You know, of quality, and then use additional reinforcement …”