The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 12 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Kant: If AI intelligence commoditizes, only scale and delivery cost matter
“And within this world, if you think that intelligence is going to become less distinguishable between the companies building it, And becomes a commodity probably more like oil or cloud compute than like bread at the bakery, is there's two things that matter, y…”
Kant: Full-stack AI infrastructure ownership cuts token costs 20-40%
“So when you take all those margins out, all of a sudden you can start seeing that you can serve your tokens, 2030, 40% cheaper than someone else.”
Kant: Internet data lacks the thought processes needed for AGI
“But the reason that never got us to AGI is because, well, the internet never actually included the data set of the thoughts and actions that created it. It's the final piece of code, it's the final article you write, but not the thoughts that you had and actio…”
Kant: Programmatic RL can scale magnitudes larger than human feedback
“And it's that RL loop that is very interesting because since it's programmatic, since we have an Oracle of truth, we can scale this up far larger, right? Magnitudes larger than what you can do with human feedback today.”
Kant: AI labs build general reasoning faster by focusing on single proxies
“To get to highly capable intelligence that can reason, that can do planning, that can understand the world. You're almost better off putting a set of blinders and focusing on, on one proxy for that.”
Kant: Founders entering new domains should interview 100+ candidates per role
“And what I found to be one of the best advice I got a very long time ago, whenever you find yourself in that situation, well, this is when you want to start finding the experts to join you, but how do you find the experts? Because you yourself aren't. And here…”
Kant: Linearly adding GPUs to train larger AI models causes exponential training delays
“It is not that I can linearly add more GPUs and train increasingly a more larger model. If I do so, the time it takes becomes exponentially longer.”
Kant: Executable source code allows automated AI model feedback
“Source code is one of the very few things that we generate with neural networks. That we can actually execute an introspect. It doesn't require human feedback to evaluate it. It doesn't require humans to step by step reason through it. We have built compilers,…”
Kant: Model capabilities determine 80-90% of AI product value
“The capabilities of these products are determined today by the capabilities of the models underneath, right? About 80, 90%.”
Kant: The three critical AI stack layers are energy, compute, and intelligence
“There's three layers of the stack that fundamentally are going to matter. It's energy, it's compute, and it's the intelligence built on top.”
Kant: Software development is the best proxy task for general AI intelligence
“Software development in our opinion, being a pretty good proxy task. For a big part of the spectrum of intelligence. You need an understanding, a model of the world, because we built software for the world. You need to be particularly strong at reasoning and y…”