why aren't all 14 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Patel: Huawei used shell companies to procure TSMC chips and Korean HBM
“Well, actually they were using shell companies to get chips from TSMC and using Different methods of like sneaking HBM, which is memory from, you know, Korea through Taiwan to China, right?”
Assertion Supported
Patel: Groq missed revenue significantly before being acquired
“In fact, they missed revenue last year significantly and yet they got bought, right? Because the value of the IP was there and the value of the team.”
Prediction Held up
Patel: All major non-Nvidia AI chips will fully support vLLM by mid-2026
“All of them will have a very good UX for download model, run model on VLM by The middle of the year, I think, right? Certainly AMD is already there by the end of this quarter.”
Prediction Held up
Patel: OpenAI's next model will outperform Opus 4.5 around February-March
“OpenAI's new model, I think, will be better than Opus 4.5, and it's coming, like, somewhat soon in March-ish timeframe, maybe February, March-ish, but”
Assertion Supported
Patel: Nvidia is backstopping CoreWeave's land and power capital needs
“NVIDIA invested two billion in CoreWeave, but what's more important is that that's like sort of just like the sticker. What's really relevant is NVIDIA is going to work with CoreWeave to acquire and backstop and all these things, the land, the power, the energ…”
Assertion Supported
Patel: TSMC is actively manufacturing chips in Arizona for Nvidia, Apple, and AMD
“TSMC is literally making chips for NVIDIA and Apple and AMD and others in Arizona today, right?”
Assertion Supported
Patel: Meta's Louisiana data center will reach 4 to 5 gigawatts
“Meta's data center in Louisiana is getting protested because the water It's gonna be the largest data center in the world. It's gonna be like four or five gigawatts, at least announced so far.”
Assertion Supported
China missed its 2020 and 2025 domestic semiconductor production targets
“So in 2015, they made these five-year plans for two, 20 20 and 20 20 five, where they set the percentage of semiconductors they wanted domestically produced. And they've missed the goal both times.”
Assertion Supported
Patel: Cumulative semiconductor CapEx in Taiwan exceeds $500 billion
“The collective total amount of, like, CapEx that has been spent in Taiwan is, like, five hundred billion plus, right? Across the industry, across all the companies that are making semiconductors in Taiwan.”
Assertion Supported
Patel: Elon Musk is considering building semiconductor fabs due to AI chip shortages
“Even Elon's talking about building fabs now, because he sees the shortages in the world, right? There's a lot of semiconductor-related shortages for building out AI”
Assertion Supported
Patel: Hyperscalers are funding public transmission grid upgrades
“Hyperscalers are paying for transmission grid upgrades, which people will benefit from.”
Assertion Supported
Patel: Electrician and plumber wages are skyrocketing from AI expansion
“Electricians wages are skyrocketing, you know, et cetera. Right. Like the plumbers wages are skyrocketing.”
Assertion Supported
Patel: Chinese TV dramas feature semiconductor fab and solar cell researchers
“There are dramas where people fall in love in the fab or dramas where people fall in love and they're photovoltaic, like solar cell researchers and engineers.”
Assertion Supported
Patel: CoreWeave secured GPU debt without backstops using Microsoft contracts
“In the case of core wave, they were actually able to no backstop, right? They were able to just say, Hey, look, here's our Microsoft contract for this many GPUs.”