The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 22 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Patel: Huawei used shell companies to procure TSMC chips and Korean HBM
“Well, actually they were using shell companies to get chips from TSMC and using Different methods of like sneaking HBM, which is memory from, you know, Korea through Taiwan to China, right?”
Patel: Groq missed revenue significantly before being acquired
“In fact, they missed revenue last year significantly and yet they got bought, right? Because the value of the IP was there and the value of the team.”
Patel: All major non-Nvidia AI chips will fully support vLLM by mid-2026
“All of them will have a very good UX for download model, run model on VLM by The middle of the year, I think, right? Certainly AMD is already there by the end of this quarter.”
Patel: Chinese local governments, not national, banned Nvidia's H20 and H200
“But as far as I understand, the national government has not banned Nvidia's H-twenty or H-two hundred, but the local ones have. Right. A lot of local ones have said, no, you know, you must use China manufactured chips.”
Patel: OpenAI's next model will outperform Opus 4.5 around February-March
“OpenAI's new model, I think, will be better than Opus 4.5, and it's coming, like, somewhat soon in March-ish timeframe, maybe February, March-ish, but”
Patel: Nvidia is backstopping CoreWeave's land and power capital needs
“NVIDIA invested two billion in CoreWeave, but what's more important is that that's like sort of just like the sticker. What's really relevant is NVIDIA is going to work with CoreWeave to acquire and backstop and all these things, the land, the power, the energ…”
Patel: TSMC is actively manufacturing chips in Arizona for Nvidia, Apple, and AMD
“TSMC is literally making chips for NVIDIA and Apple and AMD and others in Arizona today, right?”
Patel: Microsoft Nebius NJ data center didn't drive power price hikes
“That data center has nothing to do with power prices going up. It's super storm standee, like five years ago, knocking or whatever, how many years ago, knocking down the state's electrical infrastructure and then the, then improving all these improvements. And…”
Patel: The US has not built wholesale new power capacity in 50 years
“America's not built power for 50 years really, right? It's like converted from coal to gas and like things like this, but like really just have not built wholesale new power on a large scale.”
Patel: Meta's Louisiana data center will reach 4 to 5 gigawatts
“Meta's data center in Louisiana is getting protested because the water It's gonna be the largest data center in the world. It's gonna be like four or five gigawatts, at least announced so far.”
Patel: Over 99% of OpenAI's spend is likely compute
“99 plus percent of their spend at the company is probably just compute.”
Patel: First-wave AI chip startups all bet on on-chip memory
“The first wave of AI hardware bets, Graphcore, Cerebris, Samanova Grok, where they all made the same bet on memory and putting the memory on the chip.”
China missed its 2020 and 2025 domestic semiconductor production targets
“So in 2015, they made these five-year plans for two, 20 20 and 20 20 five, where they set the percentage of semiconductors they wanted domestically produced. And they've missed the goal both times.”
Patel: Cumulative semiconductor CapEx in Taiwan exceeds $500 billion
“The collective total amount of, like, CapEx that has been spent in Taiwan is, like, five hundred billion plus, right? Across the industry, across all the companies that are making semiconductors in Taiwan.”
Patel: Elon Musk is considering building semiconductor fabs due to AI chip shortages
“Even Elon's talking about building fabs now, because he sees the shortages in the world, right? There's a lot of semiconductor-related shortages for building out AI”
Patel: Hyperscalers are funding public transmission grid upgrades
“Hyperscalers are paying for transmission grid upgrades, which people will benefit from.”
Patel: Electrician and plumber wages are skyrocketing from AI expansion
“Electricians wages are skyrocketing, you know, et cetera. Right. Like the plumbers wages are skyrocketing.”
Patel: Meta operates two MTIA chip lines for recommendations and Gen AI
“Meta actually has two lines of AI chips. They're MTIA. There's a line that's focused on recommendation systems, and then there's a line that's focused on Gen AI.”
Patel: ByteDance develops custom chips for recommendation systems rather than Gen AI
“ByteDance also has a recommendation system line of chips, and it's not really focused on Gen AI”