The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 6 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Patel: AI software industry could hit $100 billion ARR this year
“I think the industry could hit a hundred billion ARR by the end of this year, like 45, 50 for open AI, like 35, 40 for anthropic.”
Dylan Patel Feb 5, 2026 ▶ 39:28 Dylan Patel: NVIDIA's New Moat & Why China is "Semiconductor Pilled”
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2029
Dylan Patel: AMD will remain in single-digit percentage AI market share
“I don't think they'll Go beyond, like, I think they'll stay in single digits market share, single digit percentage market share.”
Dylan Patel Feb 5, 2026 ▶ 17:30 Dylan Patel: NVIDIA's New Moat & Why China is "Semiconductor Pilled”
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2031
Patel: Data center power consumption will grow from 2% to 10% of US grid
“And then you've got data centers now all of a sudden coming online and going from two percent to 10% of the U S grid in just a handful of years.”
Dylan Patel Feb 5, 2026 ▶ 55:52 Dylan Patel: NVIDIA's New Moat & Why China is "Semiconductor Pilled”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Patel: Data centers will use under 1% of US water by 2030
“So the U.S. Grid will get to, like, 10% of power by, like, 28, 27, is data centers. For water consumption, it's not even gonna crack one percent. By the end of the decade.”
Dylan Patel Feb 5, 2026 ▶ 57:48 Dylan Patel: NVIDIA's New Moat & Why China is "Semiconductor Pilled”
Assertion Open · timeframe Feb 2029
ByteDance is taking over 1 GW of Oracle data center capacity in Malaysia
“It's instead being built in Malaysia, and Oracle has over a gigawatt of capacity in Malaysia that ByteDance is gonna take, right?”
Dylan Patel Feb 5, 2026 ▶ 25:41 Dylan Patel: NVIDIA's New Moat & Why China is "Semiconductor Pilled”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Patel: Hyperscaler capex will reach roughly $500 billion this year
“Hyperscalers capex is going to be like five hundred billion dollars this year or something like this.”
Dylan Patel Feb 5, 2026 ▶ 50:11 Dylan Patel: NVIDIA's New Moat & Why China is "Semiconductor Pilled”
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