why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Walsher: Cursor announced reaching $500M in ARR
“Cursor, maybe three weeks ago, announced they're at five hundred million dollars of ARR.”
Assertion Partly supported
Walsher: Computer science graduates face top-tier college unemployment rates
“Computer science grads are actually among the top five or six majors graduating from college right now with the highest unemployment rate.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Walsher: Lovable reached $60M ARR in two quarters
“Lovable, which allows people to create prototypes and web apps through a series of prompts, has gone zero to sixty million dollars of ARR in the last two quarters.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Walsher: Windsurf recently reached $100M in ARR
“Windsurf, which is rumored to have sold to OpenAI Hit a hundred million dollars of ARR quite recently.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Walsher: Replit grew ARR from $10M to $100M in six months
“And then Replit, which went from 10 to a hundred million dollars of ARR in just the last six months.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
FirstMark survey: 82% of developers use AI to write code
“We've seen a 30 to 50% faster throughput. We've seen a 12% increase in PR merges. This is a really important compounding stat here on the bottom left, which is a 17% increase in the amount of time folks are spending on roadmap versus maintenance and keeping th…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Walsher: GitHub Copilot reached $400M ARR and 15M developers
“GitHub Copilot, which I know you just had Thomas on the podcast not too long ago. Four hundred million dollars of ARR, fifteen million developers, very much the steward of this category first mover.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Walsher: End-to-end AI coding agents are currently limited to low-complexity tasks
“And for now, many of the agentic solutions that are truly end to end, you know, complete something are very much being pointed at lower level tasks that I'd say are quote unquote more mindless that have less dependency complexity you know, that have less of a …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Walsher: Code test flakiness is skyrocketing due to AI code generation
“We're just seeing like flakiness generally across code skyrocketing.”
Assertion Contradicted
Walsher: Global software developer population grew 7x since 2006
“Over that time, so from, call it, 2006 all the way to now estimated about seven x growth in the number of global software developers”