The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Evans: VR headsets will not replace smartphones as primary computing platforms
“You're not going to wear a headset, no matter how light and cheap it is, all day outdoors. I would not have worn it walking here, even if it weighed a hundred grams and had completely perfect pass-through. Therefore, it can't replace your phone. Therefore, we …”
Evans: AI is not currently on a path to 100% factual accuracy
“Are you telling me this is going up to the point that I'm going to be able to use deep research and the numbers will all be right, and I'll know that they're all right? Because I don't think we're on a path to that. Or at least I don't think we know that we're…”
Evans: Microsoft Bing will never catch up with Google in search
“Doesn't matter how much money and how hard Microsoft works, Bing will never catch up with Google.”
Evans: AI coding will lead to far more total software volume
“There will be way more software, and that will pick up many more of those use cases, either that weren't automated before, either because they were too small, or because you could actually couldn't automate that thing with software before, and now with AI you …”