The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Evans: OpenAI has commodity tech and no differentiation but massive mindshare
“If you're Sam Altman, you've got a commodity technology. You've got, you're competing with people who have giant legacy cash flows. You don't have your own infrastructure. Don't really have any differentiation, but you've got massive mindshare.”
Evans: OpenAI Product Chief Kevin Weil is building a thin GPT wrapper
“Kevin Wheel is building a thin GPT wrapper. I mean, I love Kevin, but like, that's his job, is to build a thin GPG wrapper.”
Evans: Elon Musk's autonomy and humanoid demos are fake
“It's bullshit. Yeah, but it's not a real demo. It's not working.”
Evans: Anthropic momentum is fleeting as AI model leadership shifts weekly
“Not really. I mean, this week they've got all the fire, they've got all the juice, whatever the word is. I don't know. This week, next week, it'll be something else.”
Evans: AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud are fundamentally different businesses
“The first is if you actually look at the market shares, Google Cloud, Azure, and AWS are actually in quite different businesses. AWS is mostly infrastructure. Microsoft is mostly services. Google is mostly scrambling to catch up in a very distant certain place…”
Evans: 'Agent' in AI is as fuzzy a term as 'metaverse'
“It's a very kind of, it's a slightly kind of fuzzy term. It's a little bit like saying metaverse. You know, you don't really know what somebody meant when they might've meant VR or VR is real. They might've meant games. Games are real. But when they said metav…”
Evans: Precise numeric scores for job AI exposure are ludicrous
“You want to take all the numbers off because it could tell yourself that that one is 96.5 and that one is 78. It's just ludicrous.”
Evans: Sam Altman's role is mostly fundraising, politics, and promotion
“Like a lot of Sam Altman's role at the moment, it's like you could split his role into capital raising, politics, like internal tech politics and promotion.”
Evans: Apple's AI writing tools are just better spellcheck
“They have the writing tools, so you can select a bunch of text and hit proofread. And it, it's like spellcheck. Or you can summarize it, or you can select some text and turn it into a table. It's useful. It's a feature. It's just a feature. It's like spellchec…”