why aren't all 17 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Medlock: 2015 AI technology cannot abstract concepts across domains
“This is what the human brain does so incredibly well, and what our technology today is currently almost entirely unable to do.”
Insight
Ben Medlock: Touchscreen typing is an inference problem, not a mechanical one
“This is a virtual keyboard, and the problem of typing was now not a mechanical problem. It's an inference problem, and that means that there is a degree of uncertainty.”
Assertion Partly supported
Medlock: SwiftKey is used on close to a billion devices worldwide
“We designed this in 2010, and it's now used on close to a billion devices worldwide.”
Disclosure
Medlock: SwiftKey chose independent probability distributions over neural networks for tractability
“And we took the first one of these because it's a lot easier and a lot more tractable.”
Insight
Medlock: N-gram models are extremely hard to beat in voice recognition
“If you've done anything in voice recognition, you will know that it's really, really hard to beat Ngram models.”
Insight
Medlock: Neural network language models are a highly promising research avenue
“Another possibility is to move away from engrams and towards neural network-based language models, which is a really promising, ah, avenue of research at the moment.”
Disclosure
SwiftKey scraped the entire public internet to train its language models
“We scraped all of the publicly available texts off the internet and dumped it into language specific buckets.”
Insight
Medlock: Online profiles offer the best seed for personal predictive text models
“To get a really strong predictive model, you need to know how an individual user uses language, and online profiles give you an ideal way of getting a seed for this.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ben Medlock predicted physical keyboards would dominate programming until AGI arrives
“I think for things like programming, it's really hard to see it changing significantly. And it's sort of almost It's very difficult to imagine what would actually do a much better job of this outside of a general AI that's better at programming than we are. So…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Ben Medlock: Early AI symbolic logic models failed to scale
“And the systems that, that we tried to build to begin with were based on scaled down worlds where we could develop symbolic logics to manipulate sort of simplified objects within these worlds and just failed miserably to scale up to the real world.”
Disclosure
SwiftKey used Large Hadron Collider grid infrastructure to process language models
“So we, ah, we partnered with the University of Cambridge in the UK to use the European grid, which was put together to analyze the data from the Large Hadron Collider, which is why I show you this picture.”
Disclosure
SwiftKey's initial touch model used Gaussian distributions to map keypresses
“The system that we first built was to use Gaussian distributions to model the interaction of the person with the keyboard surface, and then we can use a linear Gaussian for the space bar, and the others are single point Gaussians.”
Disclosure
SwiftKey continuously retrains its touch model on-device as users type
“We build all this technology that runs on the phone. So while you're tapping on the keyboard, it's retraining via a re-parameterized version of MAP.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
SwiftKey saved users 15 trillion keystrokes out of 50 trillion typed characters
“We've had about 50 trillion characters written through the software, and we saved about 15 trillion keystrokes”
Assertion Supported
SwiftKey built Stephen Hawking's upgraded communication technology
“We just recently built Stephen Hawking's new communication technology”
Disclosure
Medlock: SwiftKey licenses predictive typing tech to Samsung
“We also license the technology to people like Samsung who build their own keyboards on top of it.”
Disclosure
SwiftKey accidentally launched its first Dutch keyboard without a profanity filter
“I do remember we, ah, we launched the, ah, Dutch version, the first Dutch version, we forgot to switch on the profanity filter. So it went out, and it was utter filth.”