The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Srinivas: Google will lose its single search monopoly in the conversational era
“And in that era, I don't think Google is going to be the one single monopoly because they're already like far behind in this interface.”
Srinivas: Conversational AI will replace 10 blue links in 5-10 years
“If you have like deeper, more complex questions with five or 10 years from now, like you're not going to consume 10 blue links. It's going to be a chat bot or a system that you just ask questions like how you would ask another person.”
Srinivas: AI search will not be dominated by the largest model
“This is not a problem that will be dominated by the company with the largest language model.”
Srinivas: Next major AI jump will come from self-teaching models
“At some point, like we lost saturated on data that, that exists on the internet. That's interesting enough for models to keep improving on that. The next big capability jump is probably going to come from the models teaching themselves.”
Srinivas: Open-source AI models do not match closed-source model capabilities
“That needs the open source models or fine tuned versions of them to match the closed source, the closed ones. And That's not the case today.”
Srinivas: Self-hosting open-source LLMs is more expensive than closed-source APIs
“Even if there exists a checkpoint today, that's as good as the close models. It's still not an incentive to use them and serve them yourself because you're going to burn more money than paying for the close ones because the close ones are being served in such …”
Srinivas: Jasper and Copy.ai initially generated more revenue than OpenAI
“News started spreading that there were companies like Jasper and copy.ai that started making more money than even OpenAI at the time.”
Srinivas: Stable Diffusion and Midjourney likely generated more revenue than DALL-E 2
“Similarly, like, Stable Diffusion and Midjourney were all, like, pretty competitive with Dolly too, and actually probably making more money than Dolly too.”