The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 5 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2030
Gomez: Discrete diffusion models will not replace the Transformer
“Now there are these discrete diffusion models, which do diffusion, which has been super popular for, like, image understanding, image generation. It's doing that same process for language models, but I still don't see that replacing the transformer.”
Aidan Gomez Jun 5, 2025 ▶ 15:23 Inside the Paper That Changed AI Forever - Cohere CEO Aidan Gomez on 2025 Agents
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gomez: AI models will probably surpass the best doctors at prescribing drugs
“Is it better than the world's best doctor at prescribing drugs? Probably not. Will it get there? Probably.”
Aidan Gomez Jun 5, 2025 ▶ 30:38 Inside the Paper That Changed AI Forever - Cohere CEO Aidan Gomez on 2025 Agents
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gomez: AI reasoning models will expand into medicine and physical sciences
“We've just scratched the surface at the moment. It's mostly focused on, you know math problems and this sort of thing. There is a whole world of applications that we need to make it work work in medicine, you know, everything from the pure sciences, physics, c…”
Aidan Gomez Jun 5, 2025 ▶ 18:18 Inside the Paper That Changed AI Forever - Cohere CEO Aidan Gomez on 2025 Agents
Prediction Held up
Gomez: Specialist AI models will emerge for drug creation and material sciences
“There will be specialist models that emerge to help in things like in pharma, right? The creation of new drugs in material sciences for advanced materials.”
Aidan Gomez Jun 5, 2025 ▶ 29:10 Inside the Paper That Changed AI Forever - Cohere CEO Aidan Gomez on 2025 Agents
Prediction Held up
Gomez: Cohere's Command model will soon become multimodal
“Command command a isn't currently multimodal, but you can imagine Very soon it will be.”
Aidan Gomez Jun 5, 2025 ▶ 43:48 Inside the Paper That Changed AI Forever - Cohere CEO Aidan Gomez on 2025 Agents
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