why aren't all 14 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Levie: Proposed US tariffs will cause a total economic disaster
“If as of, you know, Tuesday afternoon, you know, the tariffs that have been proposed, if those roll through you know, this is going to be a total disaster.”
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2036
Levie: AI compute cost reductions will take 5 to 10 years
“The data center providers, the labs, et cetera, have pricing power. They don't need to lower their prices on anything. So you're not seeing the typical things that drive down the cost of compute. I'm highly optimistic that that happens over the next five to 10…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Levie: A $5B startup will be built around AI compute ERP
“You're going to need, you know, new, new pieces of software. Probably there's probably a, you know, a five billion dollar startup waiting to happen just in like ERP for your AI compute.”
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2031
Levie: Average enterprise will use half a dozen AI models
“I think what's going to happen is you're going to have a mosaic of models in the enterprise. I think the average enterprise will certainly be using, you know, half a dozen models in their organization.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Levie: Headless AI queries will be 100x larger than interface work
“So I think it's just going to be this sort of dual, dual model with the one nuance being probably by like you know, database queries, headless will just be a hundred times larger than the interface driven, you know, way of doing work.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Levie: Enterprise software will combine seat and consumption models within three years
“So I think any enterprise software company in three years from now, that sort of, that, that gets through this AI transformation period, It will have a seat business model, assuming it has an end user component, and it'll have a consumption business model.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Levie: AI agents will drive hiring as executives capture new value
“You will actually see, interestingly, if you're like an executive and you start to do this, you'll see lots of areas actually where you should hire more people because you're like, oh my God, this thing is spitting out, you know, incredible goldmine of value, …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Levie: US trade friction will allow international entrepreneurs to outcompete US businesses
“If you're an international entrepreneur right now and you're watching this, you're like, I can now finally outcompete the U S because they've just going to create friction for their own businesses.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Levie: Solving enterprise AI search and governance will take years
“So, so this is the part that will take years to fully figure out and get right.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Levie: All enterprise software will interoperate via AI agents within two years
“I think we could easily be two years from now where you just feel totally comfortable that like all the software you use can talk to all the other software in an agentic way.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Levie: Software companies will not get an AI price premium
“You will grow faster because you're entering new markets, but you won't grow faster because there's some kind of like magical AI premium on your software. And those are two things to kind of decouple, which is like the price that you can charge because you hav…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Levie: Enterprise AI spend will shift from IT to line-of-business budgets
“And so if AI is, you know, truly adding this productivity gain to your engineering team or your client onboarding process or your marketing team, then clearly you don't want to be trapped by this sort of three to seven percent in the business. It's going to es…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Levie: AI will expand Box's TAM without disrupting seat pricing
“Like, we think the TAM of our category goes up because of AI and the business model doesn't get like severely disrupted in the sense of we used to be selling seats and now all of a sudden something totally different, it's seats and then something in addition t…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Levie: Agent interoperability will follow the REST API adoption curve
“I think it'll, it'll follow probably the same curve that, like, REST APIs did 20, 25 years ago, 23 years ago or whatever.”