The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 3 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Douglas: AI autonomous task execution time horizons double every six months
“And so I think it's like every couple of months, the time horizon that the AIs are capable of doing is doubling or something, something crazy. Maybe, maybe every six months the time horizon doubles”
Trojanowski: METR AI Agent Benchmark Is Inaccurate With a Low Bar
“I think the meter chart is somewhat inaccurate these days because it's so hard to measure. And also the bar is pretty low, right? The bar is pretty low. Yeah, yeah. The bar is pretty low, and I think, I'm not super familiar with their dataset, but my understan…”
Izmailov: Duration of tasks AI can robustly automate doubles every six months
“There is this famous meter plot, which shows how long of a task AI is capable of robustly automating, and it's been kind of consistently doubling at that time every half a year, I think and it's now in like some hours so maybe a couple hours.”