The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Supported
Chinese AI labs like DeepSeek and Alibaba perform strongly on benchmarks
“China was kind of not in this fight, like, 12 months ago, and now is very much in it. Like, their models like Alibaba's Quen and then this spin out from a quantitative hedge fund DeepSeek, which publishes code models and others, and they've been actually a ver…”
Nathan Benaich Nov 14, 2024 ▶ 10:26 State of AI 2024: Frontier Models, AI Geopolitics, Robotics | Nathan Benaich, Air Street Capital
Assertion Partly supported
Dubois: Models like Kimi and DeepSeek use ~1M RL data points
“Now when you look at reinforcement learning from models like Kimi or from DeepSeq models, it seems that they are closer to one million data points.”
Yann Dubois May 21, 2026 ▶ 38:08 OpenAI's Yann Dubois: Why AI Progress Suddenly Feels Real
Assertion Partly supported
Dan Fu: DeepSeek-V3 was trained on ~2,000 H800s with 20% MFU
“If you look at the deep seek model, for instance, this is one of the best open source models we have out there today. It was trained at the end of 2024. On last generation, kind of nerfed GPUs, H 800 instead of H 100, the 800 is nerfed by all sorts of ways fro…”
Dan Fu Jan 22, 2026 ▶ 17:26 The End of GPU Scaling? Compute & The Agent Era — Tim Dettmers (Ai2) & Dan Fu (Together AI)
Assertion Contradicted
Fireworks AI was first to enable function calling for DeepSeek models
“We have been working on function for calling for a long time, and we are the first one to enable function calling for deep seek models.”
Lin Qiao Mar 27, 2025 ▶ 43:58 Why This Ex-Meta Leader is Rethinking AI Infrastructure | Lin Qiao, CEO, Fireworks AI
Assertion Supported
Over 500 DeepSeek model variants hit Hugging Face within a month
“DeepSeq for example, just within one month of releasing their new models, There are, despite DeepSeq model, extremely hard to tune and optimize, extremely hard. There are 500, more than 500 variants published on Hugging Face, optimizing for local device, optim…”
Lin Qiao Mar 27, 2025 ▶ 56:29 Why This Ex-Meta Leader is Rethinking AI Infrastructure | Lin Qiao, CEO, Fireworks AI
Assertion Supported
Snowflake hosted full version of DeepSeek model on platform
“We actually hosted the full version of DeepSeek, not their small model.”
Sridhar Ramaswamy Apr 10, 2025 ▶ 1:20:24 Snowflake CEO on Winning the AI Arms Race
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