The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 12 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Opinion
Howard: There was no technological breakthrough 'DeepSeek moment'
“For me, there was no technology DeepSeek moment.”
Jeremy Howard May 15, 2025 ▶ 7:25 Jeremy Howard on Building 5,000 AI Products with 14 People (Answer AI Deep-Dive)
Opinion
Ramaswamy: DeepSeek is one or two steps behind xAI in model training
“If you were to compare them to XAI, I would say they are definitely one or two steps behind in terms of their ability to come from nothing and train a world-class foundation model.”
Sridhar Ramaswamy Apr 10, 2025 ▶ 1:20:42 Snowflake CEO on Winning the AI Arms Race
Insight
Kiela: DeepSeek proved frontier AI models can rely on synthetic data
“We have kind of an existence proof now that it's actually not that hard to do this and so you don't need to invest all that much in, in data, and you can use synthetic data and get a pretty good model out of that”
Douwe Kiela Mar 6, 2025 ▶ 3:12 Top AI Researcher on GPT 4.5, DeepSeek and Agentic RAG | Douwe Kiela, CEO, Contextual AI
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Kiela: DeepSeek's total development cost was at least 100x its $6M training
“So I would guess that they spent at least a hundred X The amount of that, that single training run, right?”
Douwe Kiela Mar 6, 2025 ▶ 9:58 Top AI Researcher on GPT 4.5, DeepSeek and Agentic RAG | Douwe Kiela, CEO, Contextual AI
Assertion Supported
Chinese AI labs like DeepSeek and Alibaba perform strongly on benchmarks
“China was kind of not in this fight, like, 12 months ago, and now is very much in it. Like, their models like Alibaba's Quen and then this spin out from a quantitative hedge fund DeepSeek, which publishes code models and others, and they've been actually a ver…”
Nathan Benaich Nov 14, 2024 ▶ 10:26 State of AI 2024: Frontier Models, AI Geopolitics, Robotics | Nathan Benaich, Air Street Capital
Assertion Partly supported
Dubois: Models like Kimi and DeepSeek use ~1M RL data points
“Now when you look at reinforcement learning from models like Kimi or from DeepSeq models, it seems that they are closer to one million data points.”
Yann Dubois May 21, 2026 ▶ 38:08 OpenAI's Yann Dubois: Why AI Progress Suddenly Feels Real
Assertion Not checkable as stated
DeepSeek's architecture is still built on a GPT-2 scaffold
“And you can actually, in fact, Take a GPT one or two model and with a few, I mean, few lines of code almost, you can transform it into the latest let's say deep seek version, 3.2 architecture. It's not like a big leap. It's still the same as scaffold.”
Sebastian Raschka Jan 29, 2026 ▶ 2:54 State of LLMs 2026: RLVR, GRPO, Inference Scaling — Sebastian Raschka
Assertion Partly supported
Dan Fu: DeepSeek-V3 was trained on ~2,000 H800s with 20% MFU
“If you look at the deep seek model, for instance, this is one of the best open source models we have out there today. It was trained at the end of 2024. On last generation, kind of nerfed GPUs, H 800 instead of H 100, the 800 is nerfed by all sorts of ways fro…”
Dan Fu Jan 22, 2026 ▶ 17:26 The End of GPU Scaling? Compute & The Agent Era — Tim Dettmers (Ai2) & Dan Fu (Together AI)
Disclosure
Lambert: Ai2 generated billions of DeepSeek completions over a weekend
“We had a bunch of cloud credits and I, they were running out and we're behind and I just generated like as many completions as possible. So it was like a few billion completions from deep seek over the weekend.”
Nathan Lambert Nov 20, 2025 ▶ 1:08:18 Open Source AI Strikes Back — Inside Ai2’s OLMo 3 ‘Thinking"
Assertion Contradicted
Fireworks AI was first to enable function calling for DeepSeek models
“We have been working on function for calling for a long time, and we are the first one to enable function calling for deep seek models.”
Lin Qiao Mar 27, 2025 ▶ 43:58 Why This Ex-Meta Leader is Rethinking AI Infrastructure | Lin Qiao, CEO, Fireworks AI
Assertion Supported
Over 500 DeepSeek model variants hit Hugging Face within a month
“DeepSeq for example, just within one month of releasing their new models, There are, despite DeepSeq model, extremely hard to tune and optimize, extremely hard. There are 500, more than 500 variants published on Hugging Face, optimizing for local device, optim…”
Lin Qiao Mar 27, 2025 ▶ 56:29 Why This Ex-Meta Leader is Rethinking AI Infrastructure | Lin Qiao, CEO, Fireworks AI
Assertion Supported
Snowflake hosted full version of DeepSeek model on platform
“We actually hosted the full version of DeepSeek, not their small model.”
Sridhar Ramaswamy Apr 10, 2025 ▶ 1:20:24 Snowflake CEO on Winning the AI Arms Race
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