The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Held up
Patel: All major non-Nvidia AI chips will fully support vLLM by mid-2026
“All of them will have a very good UX for download model, run model on VLM by The middle of the year, I think, right? Certainly AMD is already there by the end of this quarter.”
Dylan Patel Feb 5, 2026 ▶ 15:52 Dylan Patel: NVIDIA's New Moat & Why China is "Semiconductor Pilled”
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2029
Dylan Patel: AMD will remain in single-digit percentage AI market share
“I don't think they'll Go beyond, like, I think they'll stay in single digits market share, single digit percentage market share.”
Dylan Patel Feb 5, 2026 ▶ 17:30 Dylan Patel: NVIDIA's New Moat & Why China is "Semiconductor Pilled”
Disclosure
Lamini's hosted service ran exclusively on AMD GPUs for a year
“The Lamini hosted service over the past year has been running on AMD GPUs only. We haven't been running on NVIDIA chips.”
Sharon Zhou Nov 8, 2023 ▶ 33:01 Custom LLMs at Scale: Lamini CEO Sharon Zhou’s Playbook for Enterprise AI
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lamini has achieved software parity on AMD GPUs with CUDA
“We have reached software parity with essentially CUDA.”
Sharon Zhou Nov 8, 2023 ▶ 37:03 Custom LLMs at Scale: Lamini CEO Sharon Zhou’s Playbook for Enterprise AI
Assertion Supported
Patel: TSMC is actively manufacturing chips in Arizona for Nvidia, Apple, and AMD
“TSMC is literally making chips for NVIDIA and Apple and AMD and others in Arizona today, right?”
Dylan Patel Feb 5, 2026 ▶ 43:15 Dylan Patel: NVIDIA's New Moat & Why China is "Semiconductor Pilled”
Assertion Supported
OpenAI holds AMD stock warrants tied to a $600 share price
“There's like another financial sweetener in the deal where OpenAI has warrants in AMD if the stock price hits 600.”
Nathan Benaich Oct 30, 2025 ▶ 36:01 State of AI 2025 with Nathan Benaich: Power Deals, Reasoning Breakthroughs, Real Revenue
Disclosure
Patel: SemiAnalysis runs InferenceMax benchmark on $60M of donated GPUs
“It's called inferencemax. It's open source. All the code is and the results are, but we run across, I think, sixty million dollars of GPUs, which are donated to us by companies like Nvidia, AMD, OpenAI, Microsoft, Amazon, Crusoe, CoreWeave, Together AI.”
Dylan Patel Feb 5, 2026 ▶ 16:13 Dylan Patel: NVIDIA's New Moat & Why China is "Semiconductor Pilled”
Assertion Open · timeframe Nov 2028
Ai2 received an initial grant of two million GPU hours from AMD
“We got an initial grant from AMD at the time. There was about two million GPU hours.”
Luca Soldaini Nov 20, 2025 ▶ 26:58 Open Source AI Strikes Back — Inside Ai2’s OLMo 3 ‘Thinking"
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