The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 15 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Supported
Freedman: pgvectorscale on AWS is 75% cheaper than Pinecone
“The monthly costs of running such a PG vector scale deployment on AWS is 75% less expensive than PyIncome.”
Mike Freedman Sep 25, 2024 ▶ 10:22 Turbocharging Postgres for Time Series & Vectors — Timescale CTO Mike Freedman | Data Driven NYC
Assertion Partly supported
MongoDB's AGPL license prevented AWS from offering it as a managed service
“It's an open source license, it's a free software foundation approved license, but it's the AGPL, and the AGPL gives us a little bit more advantage than other players, so Amazon can't quite do the same thing that they can with, ah, MySQL as they can with, so t…”
Eliot Horowitz Mar 18, 2016 ▶ 25:58 A Fireside Chat With MongoDB CTO Eliot Horowitz (Data Driven NYC / FirstMark)
Prediction Held up
AWS is nearly certain to reach $100B in annual revenue
“And I think it's a near certainty Amazon's gonna do a hundred billion in revenue in AWS.”
Peter Fenton Mar 18, 2016 ▶ 24:47 A Fireside Chat with Benchmark General Partner Peter Fenton (Data Driven NYC / FirstMark)
Assertion Contradicted
Amazon Web Services holds about 90% market share
“You have a company that's gonna, ah, it's on its path to be, and it is, about a 90% market share player.”
Peter Fenton Mar 18, 2016 ▶ 25:03 A Fireside Chat with Benchmark General Partner Peter Fenton (Data Driven NYC / FirstMark)
Assertion Supported
AWS AI business is growing 3x faster than original AWS
“AWS's AI business is a multi-billion dollar revenue run rate business that continues to grow at a triple digit year over year percentage, and is growing more than three X faster at this stage of its evolution as AWS itself grew”
Matt Turck Nov 8, 2024 ▶ 27:14 Superintelligence, Bubbles And Big Bets: AI Investing in 2024 | Matt Turck & Aman Kabeer, FirstMark
Prediction Held up
Katz: ClickHouse will build a multi-tenant cloud-managed service
“And at the same time in parallel, we are going to build A multi-tenant managed service in the cloud, which will inevitably be deployed on a variety of different cloud platforms, whether it's AWS, GCP, Azure, whether we go to China, like I've done in the past a…”
Aaron Katz Nov 16, 2021 ▶ 16:00 Fireside Chat: Aaron Katz (Co-Founder & CEO, ClickHouse) with Matt Turck (Partner, FirstMark)
Assertion Supported
Rauch: AWS started as e-commerce APIs, not spare hardware capacity
“A lot of people believe that AWS started out because it had spare hardware. If you listen to the AWS episode on the acquired podcast, the story is actually way more interesting. The reason that it's called Amazon web services. Is that there was a hypothesis in…”
Guillermo Rauch Jun 26, 2025 ▶ 37:32 Guillermo Rauch: Why Software Development Will Never Be the Same
Assertion Supported
Evans: Big Tech data center spending will exceed $300B this year
“Google, Meta AWS, not Amazon overall, AWS only, and Microsoft spent about two hundred twenty billion dollars building data centers last year, and will spend about 300, maybe over 300 this year, depending on where their numbers come out.”
Benedict Evans May 22, 2025 ▶ 40:35 AI Eats the World: Benedict Evans on What Really Matters Now
Assertion Supported
Fraser: Amazon Redshift was the first cheap, fast data warehouse
“Redshift was incredibly important because it was, it came out in 2013. It was in the AWS console. It wasn't the first really good fast data warehouse, but it was the first one that was cheap.”
George Fraser Sep 18, 2020 ▶ 5:09 Fireside Chat: George Fraser (Founder & CEO, Fivetran) with Matt Turck (Partner, FirstMark)
Assertion Supported
Borgman: AWS Athena runs on Presto under the covers
“Athena actually runs on Presto under the covers, so that is the technology behind Athena.”
Justin Borgman Mar 19, 2019 ▶ 3:27 Optionality in Data Architecture // Justin Borgman, Starburst Data (FirstMark's Data Driven NYC)
Prediction Held up
Muglia: AWS will remain the leading cloud provider for the foreseeable future
“They're the leading cloud provider. We anticipate they'll be in that role, in that situation for the foreseeable future, perhaps, perhaps in, in, you know, certainly through my career.”
Bob Muglia Apr 9, 2018 ▶ 21:22 Fireside Chat with Bob Muglia, CEO at Snowflake (FirstMark's Data Driven)
Assertion Supported
Katti: OpenAI sources compute from all major cloud hyperscalers
“We have compute from, effectively, many sources. So, Microsoft, obviously, is a big partner, important partner. We also have compute, as we have announced, from AWS, Ion Google. So, we have compute from all of the hyperscalers, effectively.”
Sachin Katti Jul 16, 2026 ▶ 28:35 OpenAI’s Compute Chief: We Can’t Build Fast Enough | Sachin Katti
Assertion Supported
Levie: Box launched a year before AWS, forcing self-built infrastructure
“We actually had to build out infrastructure for the first decade and a half because merely we started the company six months too early. So we started the company and our first launch was on these co-located servers. And Amazon web services didn't launch until …”
Aaron Levie Apr 17, 2025 ▶ 24:10 Box’s Big AI Leap: Aaron Levie on Agents & the Future of Work
Assertion Partly supported
AWS operates at 20% operating margins
“They're operating at 20% operating margins,”
Peter Fenton Mar 18, 2016 ▶ 24:55 A Fireside Chat with Benchmark General Partner Peter Fenton (Data Driven NYC / FirstMark)
Assertion Partly supported
Pinterest uses AWS exclusively for its cloud infrastructure
“Pinterest of course only uses AWS, as they've mentioned.”
Bindu Reddy Apr 5, 2021 ▶ 15:52 Fireside Chat: Bindu Reddy (Founder & CEO, Abacus.AI) with Matt Turck (Partner, FirstMark)
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