The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 3 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2029
Misaligned AI will competently scheme and take over in 2029
“And then it turned out that somewhere along this transition, so at some point in 20, 29, you went from AIs that were kind of misaligned and reward hacky and sloppy and weren't really trying to do the right thing to AIs that are like competently scheming agains…”
Ryan Greenblatt Aug 27, 2026 ▶ 1:17:25 AI Could Take Over in 2029. Is It Already Too Late?
Opinion
Thomas Reardon calls the iPhone a Trump-level disaster for humanity
“I think the iPhone is a Trump level disaster for humanity.”
Thomas Reardon Sep 17, 2019 ▶ 5:00 Fireside Chat: Thomas Reardon, Founder & CEO, CTRL-Labs (FirstMark's Data Driven NYC)
Opinion
Mega-fund VCs are just lottery ticket buyers lacking company-building skills
“And I think a lot of my contemporaries are lottery ticket buyers. And, you know, you have a three billion dollar fund, and you're just buying lottery tickets, and because you don't know how to build companies, your only value is paying more.”
Chris Lynch Jun 26, 2014 ▶ 18:20 Chris Lynch, Atlas Venture // Data Driven #28 // June 2014 (Hosted by FirstMark Capital)
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