Matt Turck (VC at FirstMark) argues that OpenAI's valuation is reasonable compared to public tech market multiples.
Assertion Supported
Masayoshi Son estimates superintelligence will require $9T in cumulative capex
“Masayoshi Son, the CEO of SoftBank, mentioning just a few days ago that, Inez estimate to reach super intelligence that was going to be a cumulative capex, capital expenditure budget of nine trillion dollars, which you know, in typical MASA fashion he said was…”
Opinion
AI venture investing is rebuilding another 2021-style bubble
“Half of your time, you basically untangle the consequences of the excess period of twenty-twenty-one, where you know, you think of helping, how to help company get fit and you know, cut burn, extend runway, be efficient, all the things. That's like one part of…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sam Altman asserts that AI scaling laws will absolutely continue
“I got a chance to ask that question to Sam Altman a few weeks ago. I was at an event at an event at OpenAI. Not surprisingly, when I asked him, you know, will scaling laws continue, he looked me straight in the eye and said, absolutely”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2029
OpenAI aims to reach $100B in ARR by 2029
“The company has extraordinary ambitions to be at a hundred billion dollar in ARR in 29”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
SaaS will not die, but evolve into wrappers around AI intelligence
“We think that SAS It's not going to be dead. We think that SAS is just going to have to evolve dramatically. And if you think of SAS being largely a wrapper around a database, and you could argue that's what Salesforce is, you know, a lot of, like, workflow an…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Turck predicts AI value will be captured at the application layer
“It feels like a lot of the value is actually going to be captured and retained through that application layer in, in a way that is maybe not entirely different from the cloud vendors.”