Julian Schrittwieser, an AI researcher at Anthropic, evaluates frontier AI company valuations relative to their potential economic impact.
Prediction Not checkable as stated
AI will make Nobel Prize-level scientific discoveries by 2027 or 2028
“I think my guess for that level of capability might be maybe 2027. I think we're probably not going to find out for quite some time afterwards because of the delay in getting prices. But I think by 20, 27, 20, 28, I think extremely likely that the models will …”
Prediction Held up
Top AI models will work autonomously for full days within two years
“In a year from now, maybe two years from now, it's the top models are going to be able to work completely on their own for like a whole day or more”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
A sudden AI singularity or intelligence explosion is extremely unlikely
“Yeah, I think a true discontinuity is extremely unlikely from, you know, obviously AI researchers are already using AI to accelerate themselves. And so what's, what's already happening and like what is likely to continue to happening is that we see like a smoo…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
AI autonomous task duration doubles every three to four months
“We are seeing this very consistent improvement over many, many years where every say like, you know, three, four months is able to like do a task that is twice as long as before completely on its own.”
Opinion
Schrittwieser: Wider AI ecosystem may face bubble while frontier labs thrive
“There may simultaneously be like some sort of bubble in, you know, the wider ecosystem, while at the same time, the frontier labs on a very solid trajectory, having a lot of revenue, making a lot of money.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Schrittwieser: Current AI paradigm likely to achieve human-level performance in productivity tasks
“I think if you're thinking of, oh, we want some kind of system that can perform at roughly human level in basically all tasks that we care about. Productivity wise. Then I think, yeah, it's extremely likely that the current approach, pre-training RL, you know,…”