Assertion certainty 5/5 debate potential 1/5

Ninety percent of Instacart customers are repeat buyers

Jeremy Stanley · Making On-Demand Delivery Profitable // Jeremy Stanley, Instacart (Data Driven NYC / FirstMark) · Sep 30, 2016 · at 4:48

Jeremy Stanley, VP of Data Science at Instacart, presents retention data at Data Driven NYC in September 2016.

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“90% of our customers are repeat customers.”

quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →

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Prediction Didn’t hold up
Instacart projects reaching profitability and positive cash flow by late 2017
“And in the next 12 months, we're gonna be a profitable company, cash flow positive.”
Jeremy Stanley Sep 30, 2016 ▶ 4:50 Making On-Demand Delivery Profitable // Jeremy Stanley, Instacart (Data Driven NYC / FirstMark)
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Jeremy Stanley Sep 30, 2016 ▶ 22:26 Making On-Demand Delivery Profitable // Jeremy Stanley, Instacart (Data Driven NYC / FirstMark)
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Instacart achieved profitable unit economics in summer 2016
“We've achieved profitable unit economics, it happened in the summer”
Jeremy Stanley Sep 30, 2016 ▶ 4:17 Making On-Demand Delivery Profitable // Jeremy Stanley, Instacart (Data Driven NYC / FirstMark)
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Instacart's routing models predict Manhattan travel times twice as well as Google
“If you just take the predictions out of Google Maps API, you'll be able to explain about 25% of the variance. If you look at the models that we built internally that use a lot more of our historical data, we can get up to about 50% of the variance explained.”
Jeremy Stanley Sep 30, 2016 ▶ 10:20 Making On-Demand Delivery Profitable // Jeremy Stanley, Instacart (Data Driven NYC / FirstMark)
Assertion Not checkable as stated
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“Since the beginning of last year, we've grown revenue 500%.”
Jeremy Stanley Sep 30, 2016 ▶ 4:39 Making On-Demand Delivery Profitable // Jeremy Stanley, Instacart (Data Driven NYC / FirstMark)
Insight
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“Oftentimes you start out with a system like this, and because it's such a huge space to explore, you put in a lot of really coarse constraints up front. You know, don't do this if x, right? Most of those constraints are reasonable, but bad 10% of the time, and…”
Jeremy Stanley Sep 30, 2016 ▶ 13:30 Making On-Demand Delivery Profitable // Jeremy Stanley, Instacart (Data Driven NYC / FirstMark)
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