The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 4 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2028
Siroker: Thousands of multi-billion-dollar vertical LLM application companies will emerge
“There's whole categories of companies that are going to be cat, you know, Category defining independent successful big public multi-billion dollar companies that are just applications of large language models in a specific domain for a specific user with a gre…”
Dan Siroker Sep 14, 2023 ▶ 42:55 AI Hot Takes and Unusual Twitter Fundraising Strategies with Dan Siroker (Rewind AI)
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Siroker predicts 50% of work will be fundamentally changed within 10 years
“I think a lot of jobs will be gone in 10 years, but they'll likely be replaced with new ones. I think that's probably an obvious Conclusion. I think on the order of probably 50% of work will go away. It would be fundamentally changed.”
Dan Siroker Sep 14, 2023 ▶ 47:07 AI Hot Takes and Unusual Twitter Fundraising Strategies with Dan Siroker (Rewind AI)
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Siroker: AGI will eventually perform half the work of human engineering teams
“Eventually, you know, I don't think it will necessarily replace engineers, but it'll certainly augment them. You'll have plenty of, you know, half the work that an engineering team does will be done by AGI, and half will be done by humans, and the human stuff …”
Dan Siroker Sep 14, 2023 ▶ 50:37 AI Hot Takes and Unusual Twitter Fundraising Strategies with Dan Siroker (Rewind AI)
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Siroker: Highly paid hourly knowledge work like legal tasks will likely disappear
“I do think things like white collar knowledge work that is high paid, lawyers being one of them, is probably a good area. I think anything where today people are paying a lot of money and people are being paid by the hour that a machine could do as better, in …”
Dan Siroker Sep 14, 2023 ▶ 49:41 AI Hot Takes and Unusual Twitter Fundraising Strategies with Dan Siroker (Rewind AI)
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