why aren't all 12 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2028
Siroker: Thousands of multi-billion-dollar vertical LLM application companies will emerge
“There's whole categories of companies that are going to be cat, you know, Category defining independent successful big public multi-billion dollar companies that are just applications of large language models in a specific domain for a specific user with a gre…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Siroker predicts 50% of work will be fundamentally changed within 10 years
“I think a lot of jobs will be gone in 10 years, but they'll likely be replaced with new ones.
I think that's probably an obvious
Conclusion.
I think on the order of probably 50% of work will go away.
It would be fundamentally changed.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Siroker: AGI will eventually perform half the work of human engineering teams
“Eventually, you know, I don't think it will necessarily replace engineers, but it'll certainly augment them. You'll have plenty of, you know, half the work that an engineering team does will be done by AGI, and half will be done by humans, and the human stuff …”
Assertion Supported
Siroker: Rewind stores data locally and Rewind has no access to it
“They just passively capture everything in a privacy sensitive way. It's stored locally. We don't have access to it. Only you have access to it.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Siroker: Highly paid hourly knowledge work like legal tasks will likely disappear
“I do think things like white collar knowledge work that is high paid, lawyers being one of them, is probably a good area. I think anything where today people are paying a lot of money and people are being paid by the hour that a machine could do as better, in …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Siroker: Rewind turned down 20 term sheets at a $1 billion valuation
“In fact, we didn't, we had. 20 offers or more of a billion dollar valuation. We turned down.”
Assertion Supported
Siroker: Rewind records user activity and stores all data locally
“Rewind is a truly personalized AI. So it captures everything you see, say, and hear, stores it all locally on your devices.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Siroker: Rewind could not exist without Apple Silicon
“And it's so, you know, co occurred with Apple Silicon becoming really powerful and enabling this before Apple Silicon, you know, rewind couldn't exist.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Siroker: Every Rewind engineer ships to production daily on average
“You know, we ship on average, you know, every engineer ships code production every day on average.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Siroker: Every new Rewind engineer ships to production within 24 hours
“Every engineer, when they start at Rewind, within 24 hours of starting, they ship to production.”
Assertion Supported
Siroker: Rewind compresses screen recordings 3,000x for local storage and OCR
“We capture everything your screen is showing. We compress it, you know, 3000 times smaller, so it stores, it can be stored locally. We do optical character recognition on every word that appears on your screen. And now, you know, we're doing transcription as w…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Siroker: Rewind AI exceeds Rahul Vohra's 40% PMF survey benchmark
“Technically by Rahul's framework of, you know, it's greater than 40% of people, very disappointed if they can all use your product. Yeah, we exceed that threshold”