The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Winters: A $100M public company cannot beat rivals with $4B in capital
“I just don't think there's a way that a public company that raised like a hundred million in IPO is going to outcompete. Companies that have raised four billion dollars each, I think, in Uber and DoorDash like to crush you.”
Winters: Grubhub's only winning move was acquiring DoorDash and appointing Tony Xu
“The only thing they could have done was buy DoorDash as early as possible, and then basically let Tony run the company and build a delivery network.”
Winters: Grubhub data showed resolving bad orders boosted retention over flawless orders
“Early on, we were basically like, look, if there's an issue with the driver, if there's an issue with the order being late, we'll take it on as the marketplace, because we know if we make up for a bad experience by going above and beyond, we'll actually have b…”
Winters: Restaurant kitchens are underutilized fixed assets constrained only by seating
“For Grubhub, that's basically never true because the kitchen is essentially always an underutilized fixed asset. They can always pump out more food. 99.9% of restaurants can pump out more food. It's the front of the house that gets constrained because they're …”
Winters: Grubhub gave $10 mobile promos because app users doubled LTV
“So when our mobile app found product market fit at Grubhub, we decided to give everyone 10 dollars off their first mobile order because LTV doubled if you got the app.
And it was a little bit of a gambit, but a bunch of people used that promo, and then they st…”
Winters: Grubhub cohort retention improved year-over-year as restaurant supply scaled
“So what we found at Grubhub is that our retention got better every cohort because the product did get faster on the supply side, faster than the people we're targeting, you know, got worse.”
Winters: Grubhub covered almost all US delivery restaurants under asset-light model
“Grubhub was an asset-like marketplace where the restaurants were in charge of doing their own delivery, and we basically had every restaurant across most of the U.S. That did their own delivery.”
Winters: No single restaurant accounts for over 5% of Grubhub sales
“It's not like there's any restaurant at Grubhub that makes up more than five percent of sales. So it's still reasonably fragmented.”
Winters: Grubhub raised only $80M before its IPO
“So you're a company Grubhub that's raised eighty million dollars before you go public.”