The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Timmer: Equity rally driven by P/E expansion is ending
“If that earnings pivot comes and that earnings recovery happens, then the market can continue to advance on the basis of rising earnings, but the phase where it rises purely on the P.E. Going up, that, I think, is, is now ending, and I think, you know, in the …”
Timmer: 80% of Q2 Companies Beat Earnings Estimates by 7%
“Second quarter earnings season just wrapped up. 80% beating estimates by an average of seven percentage points.”
Timmer: TIPS Market Implies 2.25% to 2.5% Future Inflation
“If you subtract the real yield of tips from the nominal yield of regular treasuries, you get an implied inflation rate, and that inflation rate is around two and a quarter, two and a half percent which is the market's way of saying that the Fed will be success…”
Timmer: CPI Dropped From 9% to 3% While Core Remains at 4%
“And remember, the CPI has already gone from nine percent last year, June, To now three percent. So we have seen significant improvements, even though the core measures that the Fed is most interested in is still at four percent.”
Timmer: 2022–2023 Fed rate hikes are among the fastest in history
“And a year and a half ago, the Fed was at zero, zero to a quarter. So it is one of the fastest, most aggressive rate hiking cycles that we've ever seen.”