The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 274 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Timmer: 2022–2023 Fed rate hikes are among the fastest in history
“And a year and a half ago, the Fed was at zero, zero to a quarter. So it is one of the fastest, most aggressive rate hiking cycles that we've ever seen.”
Timmer: S&P 500 P/E Multiple Rose From 15 to 20
“The PE ratio for the S&P has gone from 15 to 20. That's a pretty big move. That's an almost 30% move in the market, and so now this soft landing has to continue to materialize, or the markets might be sort of on the wrong foot.”
Timmer: US yield curve has been inverted for almost a year
“We know the yield curve is very inverted, and it has been inverted for a long time, so short-term rates are well above long-term rates, and they've been that way for almost a year.”
Lieberman: Nick Huber Has Launched a Dozen Businesses Off Audience
“Nick Huber, who is a self-storage entrepreneur by day, but now he moonlights as a Twitter and LinkedIn creator That has built up a massive following, and he has launched a dozen adjacent businesses to his real estate business to drive his followers to.”
Morning Brew Took 4-5 Years to Hit 1M Subscribers
“It took us You know, four or five years to get to a million subscribers from Morning Brew, where I've seen people get to a million followers on Twitter in less than 12 months.”
The youngest top-10 global companies, Tesla and Meta, are twenty years old
“The two babies of the 10 largest companies in the world are Tesla and Meta or Facebook, which were founded in 2003 and 2004. So the youngest companies of the 10 largest in the world were founded 20 years ago.”
Hoka grew from under 10% to nearly 40% of Deckers' total revenue
“In 2018, when Hoka did a hundred fifty three million in revenue, the brand was responsible for less than 10% of Decker's revenues. Now, it accounts for nearly 40%.”
Hoka became triathletes' most-worn shoe brand starting in 2017
“After ultra marathoners came triathletes which Hoka became the most worn shoe ahead of Asics, Nike, and Saucony beginning in 2017.”
Parr: The Hustle Sold for Tens of Millions of Dollars
“We ended up selling the company for many tens of millions of dollars.”
Toy companies typically pay 3% to 5% net revenue for game licenses
“How it would typically work in the game industry is you can pitch your product to a Hasbro or a Mattel or a Nerf, and if they want to license it, you basically give up all control of the game, and you get something like three to five percent of net revenue as …”
European Wax Center did $910M in systemwide revenue across 978 stores
“Across all 978 locations, European WAC Center did nine hundred and ten million dollars in revenue.
So that across all of their stores, nine hundred and ten million dollars in revenue.
The average store that's been around for at least five years does 1.1 millio…”
European Wax Center corporate made $72M EBITDA on $207M revenue
“So in terms of European Wax Center corporate, the actual revenue to European Wax Center based on
Products that are sold in stores, the marketing fees that they charge, I believe their franchisees, and the royalty fees that franchisees have to pay, that number …”
European Wax Center is 11x larger than its closest competitor
“European Wax Center is 11 times bigger than their next closest competitor in terms of sales, and the rest of the market, there's only, like, two competitors, the rest of the market is tens of thousands of
Just mom and pop shops, so it's completely fragmented.”
Sixty percent of European Wax Center purchases are prepaid appointments
“The vast majority of purchases for European Wax Center, I believe it's 60%, are prepaid purchases because their customers are coming in frequently enough, you know, let's call it every four to eight weeks, such that they are buying many appointments well in ad…”
Morning Brew Daily hits 2M downloads, pacing for tens of millions
“It's at over two million downloads, and it's on pace to do tens of millions of downloads over the next 12 months.”
Morning Brew Took Two and a Half Years to Generate Revenue
“I don't know if we started Morning Brew after I had graduated, if it would be around today, because it took us basically two and a half years to actually start making any money on the business.”
Human labor accounts for half of global GDP
“Half of all GDP is labor. Human labor. So you think, like, the transportation market's big? Like, the market for, like, human labor is, it's the biggest economy in the world.”
Airbnb Lost 80% of Its Business During the COVID-19 Pandemic
“And Brian was sharing on the episode that Airbnb lost 80% of its business during the pandemic.”
Brian Chesky Personally Storyboarded All 150 Airbnb App Screens
“So what he ended up doing is he went through with his team and he storyboarded out all 150 screens from the Airbnb app. So Airbnb has 150 screens. They literally laid out all 150 screens. They also laid out all 72 user policies, which my understanding is there…”
Airbnb shipped 340 product upgrades and innovations over three years
“So in the last three years, Airbnb has shipped 340 upgrades and innovations to its product.”
Pujji: Most DTC e-commerce buyers are women
“The funny thing about Ampush in particular was most of the people who click and buy e-commerce direct to consumer things are women.”
Gatina: Helinet founder died in 2015 Colombia plane crash
“Friday, September, 11th, 2015. And my business partner died in a plane crash outside Medellin, Columbia, just after we finished the job. So to give you an idea of where I was at personally, I'm 29, right? CEO of this multinational midsize helicopter company.”
Lieberman: The Hustle Began as an Events Business in San Francisco
“The hustle started as an events business, and, like, it started as a single tech event for Early stage founders in San Francisco.”
Lieberman: Ascential acquired Money20/20 for $100M when it generated $40M annually
“That, that conference, at least pre-pandemic, was doing forty million dollars a year, and it was acquired by Essential, the business that owns CanLion, for a hundred million bucks.”
Lieberman: Morning Brew has grown to 250 employees and 15 products
“The business wouldn't be, you know, a 250 person company with 15 different products now.”
Lieberman: DoorDash launched as paloaltodelivery.com with PDF menus and Stanford campus flyers
“The very first iteration of DoorDash. You know, the massive food delivery business was a website called paloaltodelivery.com, and it would have PDF menus Of restaurants in Palo Alto, and what Tony Zhu, who's the CEO of the business, would do is they printed a …”
Pujji: SVB Deposits Surged From $60B to ~$200B in Under Two Years
“And Silicon Valley Bank's deposits went from something like sixty billion dollars to like two hundred billion dollars in less than two years.”
Lieberman: $1.6B of Rihanna's $1.8B net worth comes from Fenty businesses
“How she made the vast majority of her wealth, 1.8 billion dollars in net worth. I believe one point Six of it is from her two businesses, Fenty Beauty and Savage Fenty.”
Lieberman: Richard Branson scales Virgin via 50/50 joint ventures with operators
“So what I'm going to do is I'm going to find entrepreneurs who have a specific area of expertise. I'm going to go 50, 50 in a partnership with them so that they have a ton of upside. I'm going to fund the business and then I'm going to let them go off to the r…”
Lieberman: Kickstarter has raised $7B and engaged 22M project backers
“Kickstarter's raised seven billion dollars. Twenty-two million people have backed a project”
Lieberman: Kickstarter has a 40% project funding success rate
“There have been 581,000 projects that have been launched on Kickstarter, and 230 of them, 230,000 have been successfully funded, so it's a 40% hit rate.”
Lieberman: Pebble raised $10M on Kickstarter and hit $230M in sales
“In 2012, they launched Pebble on Kickstarter for the first time. They raised ten million dollars from 68,000 people around the world, and they went on over the next few years to sell two million watches And did over two hundred thirty million dollars in sales.”
Lieberman: Red Ventures is roughly valued at $12 billion
“Red Ventures is like the biggest company you've never heard of. I think last I saw, you know, rough valuation on the business is like twelve billion dollars. It's a massive company.”
Lieberman: Pieter Levels reported a 5% hit rate on launched businesses
“Like, he had posted, or he had tweeted that he's started a bunch of business now, and his hit rate's five percent.”
Lieberman: ConvertKit is super profitable and probably worth $300M
“ConvertKit had started as a side hustle that now obviously is a super profitable, probably, three hundred million dollar business”
Lieberman: Venmo and PayPal face stricter float regulations than Starbucks
“If you're a company like Venmo or PayPal, who, again, you can load money into your Venmo account, but then you want to be able to get dollars out, there's way more regulation on how those businesses can use that money to actually fund their operations.”
Lieberman reveals Morning Brew will generate $75 million in 2022 revenue
“This year the business will do Around seventy-five million dollars.”
Scudamore: COO Eric Church scaled O2E brands from $100M to $700M
“Eric took the business from a hundred million to the combined family of the three brands doing seven hundred million.”
Sanchez: Reese Witherspoon sold Hello Sunshine for $900 million
“Reese Witherspoon just sold the business for nine hundred million dollars, her Hello Sunshine company.”
Lieberman: Sanchez grew from 3,500 to 409K YouTube subscribers in eight months
“March meaning eight months ago.
I don't guess.
20,000 or something.
3500.
Today you're right around 409,000 subscribers on YouTube.”
Amoruso: Executive Coaching Is Tax-Deductible While Therapy Is Not
“One more thing I'll say is it's a write off. You can't write off therapy, so.”
Lieberman: Skims generated $275M in 2021 and was valued at $3.2B
“Kim Kardashian launched Skims in 2019. And this clothing brand in 2022, so this year, the business was valued at 3.2 billion dollars. In 2021, they did two hundred and seventy five million in revenue, and they expect to do four hundred million in revenue in 20…”
97% of users abandoned Tiny Speck's Glitch game within five minutes
“97% of people who signed up for Glitch left within five minutes.”
Katie Gatti monetized a critical DM by printing it on coffee mugs
“A certain, ah, follower who wrote in and you ended up turning, turning their, ah, their DM into a coffee mug that ended up selling the way you literally, quite literally monetized hate, I think is, ah, is a really cool example.”
Morning Brew co-founders sold a majority stake in an eight-figure deal
“So, my co-founder, Austin Reif, and I have spent the last six years building Morning Brew. That includes raising money, hiring a ton of people, making a ton of mistakes, and ultimately selling a majority stake in the business in an eight-figure deal.”
Lieberman: Virginia Was Only State Permitting Digital Notary in 2015
“When Pat first looked at this business, he saw that most states in the U.S., other than Virginia, didn't allow for digital notary, and they required an in-person witness.”